Art Laffer, Righter than Ever

It was the most famous dinner in the history of economics. Back in 1974, Arthur Laffer, Jude Wanniski, Dick Cheney, and Donald Rumsfeld met at the Washington Hotel, in the nation's capital. As legend has it, when the conversation turned to tax policy, Laffer drew a graph on a napkin to illustrate that higher tax rates do not always lead to higher tax revenue. At some point, higher rates kill economic activity, driving down revenue.

Resident Scholar Kevin A. Hassett
Resident Scholar Kevin A. Hassett
Wanniski expanded on Laffer's point in a 1978 article in The Public Interest, calling the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue the "Laffer curve." The curve became canonical to some, but others treated it as a bunch of voodoo.

It's odd that the curve caused so much controversy, given that Laffer's point is perhaps the most ancient in economics. Indeed, as Laffer himself has noted, Ibn Khaldun, the great Muslim writer, alluded to the same dynamic in his epic 14th-century work The Muqaddimah. And in the 1800s, French scholar Jules Dupuit made the point with such precision that many economists today refer to the "Dupuit-Laffer curve."

Perhaps the curve provokes controversy because, although its hypothetical existence is not disputed, whether it characterizes our economy at any given moment is another question. The problem appears to be that the benefits of tax cuts are gradual. Reductions in capital-gains taxes are the only cuts that indisputably have increased revenue immediately, and they may be a special case in which reductions release an avalanche of pent-up gains.

Source: OECD, OECD Tax Database, Table II.1; OECD, Revenue Statistics, 2005
Which makes it all the more noteworthy that recent research has identified another area of taxation that clearly fits the Laffer analysis. The chart nearby illustrates this case. Each dot in the chart indicates the corporate-tax rate and the corporate-tax revenue (relative to GDP) of a given country in 2004. In the U.S., for example, the combined federal corporate tax and average local corporate tax was almost 40 percent, but with that high rate we collected revenue equal to only 2.2 percent of GDP. Ireland, on the other hand, had a corporate-tax rate of 12.5 percent and collected revenue equal to 3.6 percent of GDP.

Of the countries represented on the chart, the U.S. has the highest rate but collects the second-lowest amount of revenue. This suggests, as economist Kimberly Clausing recently wrote in a study for the Brookings Institution, that "the United States is likely to the right of the revenue-maximizing point on the corporate income tax Laffer curve." Countries with low rates can collect more taxes because they stimulate domestic corporate activity, and because they attract multinational corporations willing to operate wherever the tax climate is best. That's a lesson the U.S. could afford to learn.

It is positively exasperating that a Republican-controlled government has taken no steps to reduce corporate taxes. Perhaps Vice President Cheney should invite Majority Leader Frist, Speaker Hastert, and President Bush to the Washington Hotel for dinner--and supply them each with an illustrated napkin.

Kevin A. Hassett is a resident scholar and director of economic policy studies at AEI.

Also Visit
AEIdeas Blog The American Magazine
About the Author

 

Kevin A.
Hassett
  • Before joining AEI, Mr. Hassett was a senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor of economics and finance at the Graduate School of Business of Columbia University, as well as a policy consultant to the Treasury Department during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations. He served as an economic adviser to the George W. Bush 2004 presidential campaign, chief economic adviser to Senator John McCain during the 2000 presidential primaries, senior economic adviser to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign, and economic adviser to the Mitt Romney 2012 presidential campaign.   Mr. Hassett is a columnist for National Review.

  • Phone: 202-862-7157
    Email: khassett@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emma Bennett
    Phone: 202-862-5862
    Email: emma.bennett@aei.org

What's new on AEI

image A farm bill bait and switch
image Corker-Warner bill retains fatal flaw of GSE model
image Gas engine stands the test of time
image Women and the unequal pay myth
AEI on Facebook
Events Calendar
  • 17
    MON
  • 18
    TUE
  • 19
    WED
  • 20
    THU
  • 21
    FRI
Monday, June 17, 2013 | 6:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.
Brainwashed: The use and misuse of neuroscience

Join New York Times columnist David Brooks as he engages the authors of “Brainwashed: The Seductive Appeal of Mindless Neuroscience” Sally Satel and Scott Lilienfeld, in a discussion of popular neuroscience.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013 | 9:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.
The next digital crossroads: Regulating competition in the Internet ecosystem

Please join us for a preview of the revised and updated edition of Jonathan Nuechterlein and Philip Weiser’s influential 2005 book “Digital Crossroads: Telecommunications Law and Policy in the Internet Age” (MIT Press).

Event Registration is Closed
Tuesday, June 18, 2013 | 5:30 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.
Economic liberty and human flourishing: Perspectives from political philosophy

At this event, three expert panelists will examine this relationship from the perspectives of influential philosophers such as Aristotle, Alexis de Tocqueville, and representatives of the Scottish Enlightenment.

Event Registration is Closed
Wednesday, June 19, 2013 | 9:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
Neighborhood watch: A time to lead in the Americas

This event has been canceled. We apologize for any inconvenience. 

Event has been Canceled
Wednesday, June 19, 2013 | 12:30 p.m. – 1:45 p.m.
Is college worth it?

At this event, Bennett and Wilezol will present their book, higher education finance experts Richard George and Richard Vedder will provide discussion, and a coffee reception and book signing will follow.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013 | 3:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m.
Is Big Brother watching you?

Join General Michael Hayden (ret.), AEI’s Marc Thiessen, and other leading experts in national security for a panel discussion on the significance of the NSA leaks.

Thursday, June 20, 2013 | 1:00 p.m. – 2:15 p.m.
Balance: The economics of great powers from ancient Rome to modern America

Please join us for an event celebrating the release of Glenn Hubbard and Tim Kane’s “Balance: The Economics of Great Powers from Ancient Rome to Modern America” (Simon & Schuster, May 2013).

Friday, June 21, 2013 | 10:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
Washington's ongoing assault on free speech: An address by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

In light of the emerging Internal Revenue Service scandal, Senator McConnell will again join AEI to comment on the use of government power to stifle speech and will propose solutions that protect the individual rights that are guaranteed to all citizens of the United States.  

No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.