Fed's Mistake Sowed Seeds of US House Price Bubble

Resident Fellow Desmond Lachman
Samuel Brittan is right on the mark in suggesting that a central bank's remit should be to minimise economic booms and busts ("Central banks need not divine bubbles", July 28). He also correctly suggests that central bank policies should be modified to take into account asset price movements as well as forecasts of consumer prices. However, with US house prices already having increased by more than 40 per cent in real terms over the past few years, and with every indication that the US house price bubble is now beginning to deflate, one wonders whether Sir Samuel is not suggesting that the barn door be bolted after the horse has fled.

Perhaps it might have been more timely for Sir Samuel to remind central bankers of the costly mistake that the US Fed made by delaying interest rate cuts after the stock market bubble burst in early 2000. By only beginning to cut interest rates after September 11 2001, the Fed eventually had to reduce interest rates by a cumulative 550 basis points to 1 percent by 2004. In so doing, it sowed the seeds for the present housing price bubble, the unwinding of which will now constitute a serious policy challenge for the Fed.

Desmond Lachman is a resident fellow at AEI.

About the Author

 

Desmond
Lachman
  • Desmond Lachman joined AEI after serving as a managing director and chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. He previously served as deputy director in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of IMF policies. Mr. Lachman has written extensively on the global economic crisis, the U.S. housing market bust, the U.S. dollar, and the strains in the euro area. At AEI, Mr. Lachman is focused on the global macroeconomy, global currency issues, and the multilateral lending agencies.
  • Phone: 202-862-5844
    Email: dlachman@aei.org
AEI on Facebook