Tracking the unreported (15.6%) unemployed

Pete Souza/White House

President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama talk with staff while ordering pizza at Anna’s Pizza and Italian Kitchen in Hampton, Va., Oct. 19, 2011. The president and Mrs. Obama had lunch with four veterans during the stop, a part of the president’s three-day American Jobs Act bus tour.

Article Highlights

  • To stay in office, there is one thing President Obama should hope for: an improvement in the employment picture

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  • More than 5.7 million Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks, an astounding 43% of all unemployed

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  • The percent of the labor force that is willing to settle for part-time work has grown from 3 percent to 5.4%

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President Barack Obama took office in January 2009 after having campaigned on the broad promise of "hope" and "change." However, to stay in office, there is one thing President Obama should hope for: an improvement in the employment picture before the 2012 elections.

The last three years have seen some of the highest unemployment rates reported since the Great Depression. The official rate moved from 5 percent in January 2008 to a high of 10.1 percent in October 2009, and a current rate of 8.6 percent. It rests 3 points above the 1948-2007 average of 5.6 percent. Unfortunately, the reality is even worse than these numbers suggest.

To stay in office, there is one thing President Obama should hope for: an improvement in the employment picture before the 2012 elections.

This is because of the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the official unemployment rate. Conceptually the unemployment rate seems simple - it is just the number of unemployed divided by the number of people in the labor force. However, deciding whom to include in the labor force is a complicated task. In the official unemployment rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the labor force as those who are employed or who have actively looked for work within the last four weeks. As a consequence, the official rate excludes workers who have decided to drop out of the labor market altogether because economic conditions have discouraged them, or for other reasons. The official rate also ignores those who settle for part-time work since they are unable to find a full-time job.

So, the way in which we calculate unemployment might mask the actual weakness of our economy. Paradoxically, if pessimism about the economy drives workers to stop looking for work or to settle for a part time job, it could actually cause the official unemployment rate to fall because of a bad outlook.

To compensate for this problem, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has published an alternative measure of the unemployment rate based on an analysis of the Current Population Survey, a household survey. This measure, referred to as the "U-6 rate", includes those that would still like a job and have looked for work in the last twelve months, not just the last four weeks. It also includes people who opted to work part-time even though they would like full-time jobs. Unfortunately, this measure is not cited nearly enough.

The U-6 rate offers a clearer picture of how precarious a situation we are in. It has moved from 8.8 percent in December 2007 to 17.4 percent in October 2009 and 15.6 percent in November 2011. Today the gap between the U-6 rate and the official rate is 7 percentage points, meaning that the number damaged by the weak job market is almost twice what the official number would suggest. At the start of the recession, there was only a 3.8 percentage point difference. By comparison, during the 2001 recession, which lasted only a few months, the difference grew by a meager 0.9 points from 3 percent to 3.9 percent.

For a historical perspective, we obtained data on these two measures going back to 1994. The evidence reveals the gap between the official rate and the U-6 rate has averaged less than 4 percentage points, and has not exceeded 5 percentage points except for the first month in 1994. October 2008 is the first time that the difference exceeded 5 points, and since then has averaged around 7 points.

Currently more than 5.7 million Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks, or an astounding 43 percent of all unemployed. The tremendous increase in long-term unemployment is one factor driving the unprecedented disparity between the official measure of unemployment and the alternative measure. Long-term unemployment has a damaging psychological impact on workers' willingness to keep searching for work and motivates them to accept part-time work.

More importantly, however, long-term unemployment has a real impact on their ability to find a job because skills erode and employers tend to recoil from large gaps on a resume.

The silver lining of this bleak jobs outlook might be that more workers are settling for part-time work rather than dropping out of the labor force completely. When individuals opt for and are able to obtain part-time work, it enables them to retain their skills and, at least partly, finance their household expenses and needs. In December 2007, only 0.2 percent of the labor force was discouraged from looking for work for economic reasons. Today, the number is 0.7 percent. The percent of the labor force that is willing to settle for part-time work has grown much more, from 3 percent to 5.4 percent.

The frailty of the labor market may be a symptom of broader issues facing the economy. Trillions of dollars of spending portend an unsustainable fiscal future, and regulatory uncertainty is high. The reasonable response of businesses to higher expected tax rates and the possibility of new regulations may be to offer part-time and temporary jobs instead of hiring full-time workers. As bad policy forces businesses to seek flexibility, the chasm between the U-6 and official unemployment rates may become a permanent fixture of the economic landscape.

The main challenge facing the Obama administration is to improve the employment situation. An easy way to start is by restoring faith in the economy and providing certainty about the future in the minds of consumers and businesses. To do this, President Obama needs Benjamin Franklin's kind of "change." A penny saved is a penny earned, and today, it may also be a job saved.

Aparna Mathur is a resident scholar at AEI.  Matt Jensen is an economic researcher at AEI.

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About the Author

 

Aparna
Mathur
  • Aparna Mathur is an economist who writes about taxes and wages. She has been a consultant to the World Bank and has taught economics at the University of Maryland. Her work ranges from research on carbon taxes and the impact of state health insurance mandates on small firms to labor market outcomes. Her research on corporate taxation includes the widely discussed coauthored 2006 "Wages and Taxes" paper, which explored the link between corporate taxes and manufacturing wages.
  • Phone: 202-828-6026
    Email: amathur@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Hao Fu
    Phone: 202-862-5214
    Email: hao.fu@aei.org

 

Matthew H.
Jensen
  • Matthew Jensen is a research associate for economic policy studies. He maintains an active research agenda focused on public finance and taxation, and he coordinates the ongoing development of AEI’s International Tax Database. Jensen has written for The Wall Street Journal, US News, and Tax Notes, among others, and he frequently appears on radio and television. Before joining AEI, he worked for a hedge fund in Minneapolis.


    Follow Matthew Jensen on Twitter.

  • Email: Matt.Jensen@AEI.org

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