The long-awaited breakup of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, which seemed unassailable for decades, seems to have finally started in earnest. Last week, former Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano resigned from the LDP and joined the former head of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Takeo Hiranuma, to form a new political organization.

This isn't the first time an LDP splinter group has been formed, but it does herald a new period of creative destruction for the party, as well as for the political system as a whole. This process could give birth to more popular, capable opposition parties that could help Japan build a stable, two-party democratic system. Or these efforts could simply fizzle out, leaving the Democratic Party of Japan in charge for years to come and proving that Japan never was meant to practice a two-party system.

In many ways the time is ripe for political regeneration. There's no question the DPJ is unpopular, and voters are increasingly desperate to find someone they can believe in. Public opinion polls this week put support for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's cabinet at just 33%, with 53% of respondents disapproving of the government. Another poll, asking Japanese whom they would like to see as prime minister, found the current premier languishing in sixth place, with a measly 5% of those polled favoring him.

The LDP is also going through a period of soul-searching after its historic electoral loss last year, but its current leadership has failed to take advantage of the DPJ's political woes, leading to more dissent from current and former members. Former LDP member Yoshimi Watanabe, who formed the breakaway group Your Party several months ago, has seen his popularity rise recently, along with that of his small party. Former health minister Yoichi Masuzoe, who remains in the LDP, is consistently picked by Japanese as the person they would most like to see as premier, giving him public support should he attempt to challenge for the leadership.

But none of these efforts will be able to address the basic issues that have kept the Japanese political system in stasis for so long. A key problem for all of Japan's politicians is that they lack a compelling or realistic vision for the county. This is perhaps an inevitable byproduct of over a half-century of LDP rule: Most of today's political leaders began their careers in the party, and opposition groups such as the Socialists and Communists were irrelevant for much of the postwar period. For this reason, pundits and analysts (this author included) ritually look to Japan's younger politicians for some hope that the current era of ineffective, out-of-touch legislators will be succeeded by those with a broader vision, an ability to get things done, and a willingness to buck the system.

But perhaps such a focus on youth is misplaced. Coming up through the Japanese political system demands fealty to party bosses, deep ties to local interest groups and an ability to navigate poisonous party politics. By the time younger parliamentarians are ready for leadership positions, they are molded in the shape of those whom they look to replace. The political system itself seems unusually resistant to change, despite the clear wishes of the electorate over the past decade.

Mavericks are just that, no matter what their age. After all, Junichiro Koizumi, Japan's most popular, and idiosyncratic, prime minister in recent years, reached the top post when he was almost 60 years old. The problem with mavericks is that they often are as ineffective in government as they are successful at winning elections.

For a nation that has as a proverb, "The nail that sticks up gets hammered down," political idiosyncrasy is perhaps rarer than in most other democracies. Mr. Koizumi was the exception; Mr. Hatoyama, equally known for his unique personality, so far is proving the rule.

No one knows, of course, whether Messrs. Yosano and Hiranuma will succeed in becoming a powerful new force, or whether their efforts will wither. Both are old-line LDP politicians who have little public appeal. Their influence comes from the positions they've held within the party, but now as opposition members they have played little role in national debate, only in the type of party politics that Japanese have come to dislike.

The fate of their new party could be a litmus test for the country--and the direction of Japanese democracy for decades to come.

Michael Auslin is a resident scholar at AEI.

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