Shuffle - Nicholas Eberstadt

The Korea Task Force's recommendation for a policy of rollback to confront the North Korean government's nuclear ambitions sounds attractive, but only in theory. In practice, it amounts to a continuation of the failed carrot-and-stick approach to denuclearization through international engagement with Pyongyang that has been attempted already for nearly two decades. Suffice it to say that over the most recent experiment in engaging North Korea (through Six Party Talks), the DPRK has gone from hinting that it is developing a "war deterrent" to stating that this deterrent is in fact a nuclear arsenal, to testing two atomic weapons, and to insisting that it will not give up its nuclear option "under any circumstances." The sorry history of nuclear negotiations with the DPRK demonstrates that the international community has absolutely no reason to assume the current North Korean regime will actually denuclearize voluntarily--no matter what blandishments Washington and others proffer or what penalties are threatened. Pyongyang regards its nuclear potential as a vital national interest--and governments do not negotiate vital national interests away. In essence, the North Korean nuclear problem is the North Korean regime. A nonnuclear North Korea will be possible only under a different government in Pyongyang. This is a highly unpleasant reality. But unless we recognize that reality--rather than imagining Pyongyang as the negotiating partner we wish it to be--continuing the current course can only make for a more dangerous future for the United States and its Asian allies.

Nicholas Eberstadt is the Henry Wendt Scholar in Political Economy at AEI.