The Gas Wars: Causes, Forecasts, and Solutions for Russia, Ukraine, and the EU
Leon Aron, Gary J. Schmitt
February 03, 2009
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The New Year heralded in record cold temperatures across Europe and the all-too-familiar sounds of another gas-fueled conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russia cut gas flows to Ukraine on January 1 after political tension caused annual gas price negotiations between the two countries to fall apart. Five days later, amid mutual accusations, Russia stopped the flow of gas to Europe, leaving a number of Eastern European nations with scarce supplies. Despite threats and pleas from the European Union (EU), only on January 19 did the two countries arrive at an agreement. The agreement differs little from the "Memorandum of Agreement" on gas prices reached between Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko in October 2008. Problems persist though supplies to the EU have been restored and Russia and Ukraine have agreed on gas prices and transit fees. Russia and Ukraine have damaged their reputations as responsible international actors and international trade partners, and the EU's unity and political will have been weakened by the futility of its efforts.

Can future gas wars between Russia and Ukraine be prevented? What steps should be taken by the EU, Russia, and Ukraine to ensure that political disputes do not have commercial repercussions--and will the parties find the will to take such steps when some of them could be politically unpopular at home? At this AEI event, a group of leading experts on European, Russian, and Ukrainian energy politics will discuss these and other questions.

About the Author

 

Leon
Aron

  • Leon Aron is Resident Scholar and Director of Russian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the author of three books and over 300 articles and essays. Since 1999, he has written Russian Outlook, a quarterly essay on economic, political, social and cultural aspects of Russia’s post-Soviet transition, published by the Institute. He is the author of the first full-scale scholarly biography of Boris Yeltsin, Yeltsin: A Revolutionary Life (St. Martin’s Press, 2000); and Russia’s Revolution: Essays 1989-2006 (AEI Press,2007); Roads to the Temple: Memory, Truth, Ideals and Ideas in the Making ofthe Russian Revolution, 1987-1991 (Yale University Press, Spring 2012).


    Dr. Aron earned his Ph.D. from Columbia University, has taught a graduate seminar at Georgetown University, and was awarded the Peace Fellowship at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He has co-edited and contributed the opening chapter to The Emergence of Russian Foreign Policy, published by the U.S. Institute of Peace in 1994 and contributed an opening chapter to The New Russian Foreign Policy (Council on Foreign Relations, 1998).


    Dr. Aron has contributed numerous essays and articles to newspapers andmagazines, including the Washington Post, the New York Times, theWall Street Journal,   Foreign Policy, The NewRepublic, Weekly Standard, Commentary, New York Times Book Review, the TimesLiterary Supplement. A frequent guest of television and radio talkshows, he has commented on Russian affairs for, among others, 60 Minutes,The Newshour with Jim Lehrer, Charlie Rose, CNN International,C-Span, and National Public Radio’s “All Things Considered” and “Talk of theNation.”


    From 1990 to 2004, he was a permanent discussant at the Voice of America’s radio and television show Gliadya iz Ameriki (“Looking from America”), which was broadcast to Russia every week.

  • Phone: 202-862-5898
    Email: laron@aei.org

  • Assistant Info

    Name: Daniel Vajdic
    Phone: 202-862-5942
    Email: daniel.vajdic@aei.org
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Gary J.
Schmitt
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