Tomorrow, negotiations between the West and Iran will begin. Danielle Pletka, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) explains in a new post why these negotiations are destined to fail
1. DISAGREEMENTS: There is disagreement among the P5+1 (but particularly between Russia, China and the rest) about what Iran needs to do to have sanctions lifted and avert a strike by Israel.
2. NO ISRAEL: Israel, the theoretical sword of Damocles hanging over Tehran's nuclear weapons program, is not a party to the talks, even on the sidelines.
3. EUROPE DISAGREES: Europe is more hard over than the Obama administration, which has quietly signaled it will accept a flawed offer from Iran in order to push off the Israelis and claim victory prior to the November presidential election.
4. IRAN WON'T FOLD: Iran has no intention of caving on its core nuclear weapons program; at best, it will offer concessions that allow Tehran to pocket the gains made thus far, continue enrichment of uranium and reserve sufficient uranium enriched to 20 percent to allow it build plenty of nuclear weapons.
5. WEST WON'T MEET IRAN'S DEMANDS: Iran's demands are not meetable by the West -- or even by Russia and China -- as they involve a requirement that sanctions be dropped before any concessions are made. And while Russia and China might be willing to do so, neither has any series sanctions in place to actually drop.
You may also be interested in a new report by AEI Iran expert Ali Alfoneh on Iranian Brigadier General Gholamreza Baghbani, the current chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force (IRGC QF) office in Zahedan, and a narcotics trafficker. Read the full report here.
Danielle Pletka is the vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at AEI and served for a decade as a senior staffer on the Senate Foreign Relations committee. She is available for interviews and can be reached through Alex Della Rocchetta adr@aei.org or 202.862.7152.
For help reaching any AEI scholars and for all other media requests, please contact Jesse Blumenthal at jesse.blumenthal@aei.org 202.862.4870.
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