The Future of Medicare: A Reality Check

Video

Event Summary
At an AEI event on Tuesday morning, Senators Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) discussed their plan for Medicare reform — the Seniors’ Choice Act. Sen. Burr stressed the need for income testing for Medicare beneficiaries and the importance of eliminating the Independent Payment Advisory Board. Sen. Coburn outlined the general structure of their plan: premium support including traditional fee-for-service Medicare.

In kicking off Part II of the event, Medicare’s chief actuary Richard Foster discussed the findings of the 2012 Medicare Trustees Report that was released yesterday. According to calculations, Medicare spending currently represents 3.7 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and could grow to 6.7 percent in the next 75 years. Moreover, if hospitals do not achieve greater productivity and Congress continues to override changes to Medicare’s Sustainable Growth Rate formula, that figure will jump to 10.4 percent of GDP in 2086.

AEI’s Norman Ornstein emphasized the importance of Medicare reform in the upcoming presidential campaign and stressed how much this reform hinges on the outcome of the Supreme Court’s decision on the Affordable Care Act (ACA).  James Capretta of the Ethics and Public Policy Center and AEI argued that the ACA is not deficit-neutral — as the Congressional Budget Office claims — because it uses new taxes to fill the deficit in the hospital insurance fund and to fund new entitlements.

Wendell Primus of the Office of the House Minority Leader disagreed with Capretta’s objections, touting the ACA’s ability to improve Medicare’s solvency and lower overall health spending. Robert Reischauer of the Urban Institute and Gail Wilensky of Project Hope then highlighted the role the private sector will play in reforming the health care system. Wilensky concluded the discussion by reminding everyone that despite the political contentiousness of Medicare reform, some agreement exists on how to improve the program.
-- Catherine Griffin

Event Summary
Medicare is facing a fiscal calamity: how can the growth of Medicare spending be limited while ensuring that beneficiaries continue to have access to affordable health care? With an aging U.S. population and rising health costs, Medicare spending is growing at an unsustainable rate.

In Part I of this event, Senators Tom Coburn (R-OK) and Richard Burr (R-NC) will discuss their proposed Seniors’ Choice Act, which provides a reform blueprint seeking to promote health plan competition and to give beneficiaries a choice between traditional Medicare and private plans. Sen. Coburn and Sen. Burr will discuss the urgent need for Medicare reform and will address how their proposal will allow for maintenance and improvement of the program.

In Part II of this event, Richard Foster, Medicare’s chief actuary, will discuss the findings of this year’s Medicare trustees report, which will provide an essential update on the program’s fiscal outlook, including the potential of ACA initiatives to bend Medicare’s cost curve. Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) plan would give individuals a premium support payment that they could use to purchase coverage from competing health plans. A panel of experts will debate the implications of the Medicare trustees report findings for seniors and taxpayers, their potential impact on the upcoming election and the likelihood that future legislation will reform and preserve the Medicare program.

Full video will be posted within 24 hours.

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About the Author

 

Joseph
Antos

  •  


    Mr. Antos's research focuses on the economics of health policy—including Medicare and broader health system reform, health care financing, health insurance regulation, and the uninsured—and federal budget policy. He has written and spoken extensively on the Medicare drug benefit and has led a team of experienced independent actuaries and cost estimators in a study to evaluate various proposals to extend health coverage to the uninsured. His work on the country’s budget crisis includes a detailed plan to achieve fiscal stability and economic growth developed in conjunction with AEI colleagues.  


    Joseph Antos is also a health adviser to the Congressional Budget Office and recently completed two terms as a commissioner of the Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission.  Before joining AEI, Mr. Antos was Assistant Director for Health and Human Resources at the Congressional Budget Office and held senior positions in the U.S.Department of Health and Human Services, the Office of Management and Budget, and the President’s Council of economic Advisers.


     



    Watch Mr. Antos in an interview with Bill Erwin of the Alliance for Health Reform on "Will Health Reform Reduce the Federal Deficit?"


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  • Phone: 202-862-5938
    Email: jantos@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Catherine Griffin
    Phone: 2028625920
    Email: catherine.griffin@aei.org

 

Robert B.
Helms
  • Robert B. Helms has served as a member of the Medicaid Commission as well as assistant secretary for planning and evaluation and deputy assistant secretary for health policy at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). An economist by training, he has written and lectured extensively on health policy and health economics, including the history of Medicare, the tax treatment of health insurance, and compared international health systems. He currently participates in the Health Policy Consensus Group, an informal task force that is developing consumer-driven health reforms. He is the author or editor of several AEI books on health policy, including Medicare in the Twenty-First Century: Seeking Fair and Efficient Reform and Competitive Strategies in the Pharmaceutical Industry.
  • Phone: 2028625877
    Email: rhelms@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Catherine Griffin
    Phone: 2028625920
    Email: catherine.griffin@aei.org

 

Norman J.
Ornstein
  • Norman Ornstein is a long-time observer of Congress and politics. He is a contributing editor and columnist for National Journal and The Atlantic and is an election eve analyst for BBC News. He served as codirector of the AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project and participates in AEI's Election Watch series. He also served as a senior counselor to the Continuity of Government Commission. Mr. Ornstein led a working group of scholars and practitioners that helped shape the law, known as McCain-Feingold, that reformed the campaign financing system. He was elected as a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2004. His many books include The Permanent Campaign and Its Future (AEI Press, 2000); The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track, with Thomas E. Mann (Oxford University Press, 2006, named by the Washington Post one of the best books of 2006 and called by The Economist "a classic"); and, most recently, the New York Times bestseller, It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremism, also with Tom Mann, published in May 2012 by Basic Books. It was named as one of 2012's best books on pollitics by The New Yorker and one of the best books of the year by the Washington Post.
  • Phone: 202-862-5893
    Email: nornstein@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Jennifer Marsico
    Phone: 202-862-5899
    Email: jennifer.marsico@aei.org

 

James C.
Capretta
  • James Capretta has spent more than two decades studying American health care policy. As an associate director at the White House's Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004, he was responsible for all health care, Social Security and welfare issues. Earlier, he served as a senior health policy analyst at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee and at the U.S. House Committee on Ways and Means. Capretta is also concurrently a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. At AEI, he will be researching how to replace the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (best known as Obamacare) with a less expensive reform plan to provide effective and secure health insurance for working-age Americans and their families.

  • Email: James.Capretta@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Catherine Griffin
    Phone: 202-862-5920
    Email: catherine.griffin@aei.org

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