The Future of Red, Blue, and Purple America
Election Demographics, 2008 and Beyond

The evolution of American politics and policy has been intimately bound up with demographic and geographic change. The arrival of the GI generation, the advance of suburbanization, the rise of the baby boomers, and women’s entry into the workforce all had profound effects on our society. Today, new demographic and geographic changes are shifting the fault lines of American politics. This conference of leading demographers, geographers, and analysts will examine seven of the most important of these changes. The first paper examines the structure of the all-important American suburbs, with a fresh look at the small but rapidly growing exurbs. The second paper analyzes the provocative notion of geographic clustering--the idea that people are increasingly likely to live near, and vote like, those who look, act, and think just like them--and what that could mean for politics and policy. The third paper investigates race and immigration, examining changes in the size and voting patterns of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. Changing class structures, including the decline of the white working class and the rise of the mass upper middle class, is the subject of the fourth paper. The last three papers look at, respectively, changes in the American family (including the decline in the number of married-couple households with children and the rise of singles); whether America is becoming more secular, more religious, or both, and what these changes in religious belief and practice mean for our politics; and the aging of the baby boomers and the rise of the millennials, the largest generation in American history.

Campaign 2008 has already provided some tantalizing clues about the shifts underway in red, blue, and purple America. Speakers at this conference will explain where these trends come from, assess their likely effects on this year’s election, and outline the ways they may affect our political future and the policy challenges both parties have to face.

This conference is a joint project of the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution.

About the Author

 

Karlyn
Bowman
  • Karlyn Bowman compiles and analyzes American public opinion using available polling data on a variety of subjects, including the economy, taxes, the state of workers in America, environment and global warming, attitudes about homosexuality and gay marriage, NAFTA and free trade, the war in Iraq, and women's attitudes. In addition, Ms. Bowman has studied and spoken about the evolution of American politics because of key demographic and geographic changes. She has often lectured on the role of think tanks in the United States and writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.
  • Phone: 2028625910
    Email: kbowman@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Andrew Rugg
    Phone: 2028625917
    Email: andrew.rugg@aei.org

 

David
Frum
  • David Frum is the author of six books, most recently, Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again (Doubleday, 2007). While at AEI, he studied recent political, generational, and demographic trends. In 2007, the British newspaper Daily Telegraph named him one of America's fifty most influential conservatives. Mr. Frum is a regular commentator on public radio's Marketplace and a columnist for The Week and Canada's National Post.

 

Michael
Barone
  • Michael Barone, a political analyst and journalist, studies politics, American government, and campaigns and elections. The principal coauthor of the annual Almanac of American Politics (National Journal Group), he has written many books on American politics and history. Barone is also a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner.

    Follow Michael Barone on Twitter


  • Phone: 202-862-7174
    Email: michael.barone@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Andrew Rugg
    Phone: 202-862-5917
    Email: andrew.rugg@aei.org
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