How close is this race, really? AEI Political Report, September 2012

AEI Political Report, September 2012

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* Barack Obama is in a weaker position than most of his predecessors seeking re-election on some important indicators at this point in the campaign. Only 23 percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, compared to 41 percent in September 2004.

* Americans have a pretty good track record of predicting election winners. Around six in ten say Obama will win in November. We also look at the effect of debates on presidential election outcomes.

* The partisan gap on issues like abortion, government size and efficiency, and global warming is growing. These and other key issues are more sharply divided by political party than by race, education, income or gender.

* Initial reactions to Joe Biden in 2008 were more favorable than early reactions to Paul Ryan in 2012, though polls suggest the VP pick ultimately has little effect on the ticket overall.

* Democrats maintain their advantage on Medicare. Across six pollsters, Americans trust Obama over Romney to handle the issue.

* Approaching the one-year anniversary of Occupy Wall Street, around two in ten Americans identify with the movement or say they are supporters of it.

* Also, polls on educational attainment, Social Security, abortion and more.


How close is this race, really? AEI Political Report, September 2012

 

 

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About the Author

 

Karlyn
Bowman
  • Karlyn Bowman compiles and analyzes American public opinion using available polling data on a variety of subjects, including the economy, taxes, the state of workers in America, environment and global warming, attitudes about homosexuality and gay marriage, NAFTA and free trade, the war in Iraq, and women's attitudes. In addition, Ms. Bowman has studied and spoken about the evolution of American politics because of key demographic and geographic changes. She has often lectured on the role of think tanks in the United States and writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.
  • Phone: 2028625910
    Email: kbowman@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Andrew Rugg
    Phone: 2028625917
    Email: andrew.rugg@aei.org

 

Andrew
Rugg

 

Jennifer K.
Marsico
  • Jennifer K. Marsico is a senior research associate at AEI, working in the Political Corner. Her research focuses on elections and election reform, as well as government continuity issues. She is a visiting fellow at the Independent Women's Forum. She is also a contributor to the AEIdeas blog, and has also written for many outside print and online publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, and Roll Call. Ms. Marsico serves as assistant director of the AEI-Brookings Continuity of Government Commission, and has contributed to recent studies on Supreme Court continuity, voter registration modernization, and civic participation in the digital age.

  • Phone: 202.862.5899
    Email: jennifer.marsico@aei.org

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