Are the Social Security Trustees Reports Too Pessimistic?

The annual Social Security Trustees Reports have projected for several years that the current Social Security program is not sustainable over the long term under scheduled benefits and taxes. But a number of commentators have suggested that the trustees are too pessimistic in their projections, thereby painting an unnecessarily bleak picture of the outlook for Social Security. Charles P. Blahous, a special assistant to President George W. Bush for economic policy who focuses on Social Security, will examine the trustees' track record as well as the variables that may bear upon the accuracy of their current projections. Stephen C. Goss, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, and John Sabelhaus, unit chief of long-term modeling at the Congressional Budget Office, will comment. Kent Smetters of AEI will moderate.

About the Author

 

Kent
Smetters
  • Kent Smetters is the Boettner Chair Associate Professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He previously served as deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Treasury. He coauthored Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: New Budget Measures for New Budget Priorities (AEI Press, 2003) and coedited The Pension Challenge: Risk Transfers and Retirement Income Security (Oxford University Press, 2004). He has published academic articles in leading journals, including the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, and The Quarterly Journal of Economics. He is often cited in major media outlets.
  • Phone: 215-898-9811
    Email: ksmetters@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Chad Hill
    Phone: 202-862-5862
    Email: chad.hill@aei.org
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