When Does a Downturn Become a Recession?
Thursday, May 30, 2002 | 10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor, AEI 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
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About This Event
Official declarations that the economy is in a recession have a significant impact on policy debates. Yet these announcements often occur months after a recession has already begun. Delays in determining the endpoint of a recession can have a negative effect on fiscal and monetary policy. In this seminar, participants will discuss the recent efforts to construct economic models that rely upon real-time data to calculate the probability of a recession. They will also review the performance of these models and evaluate the pros and cons of having a government agency--instead of a private organization--calculate and report the probability of a formal recession. Agenda
| 10:00 a.m. | Registration | |
| 10:15 | Moderator: | Kevin A. Hassett, AEI |
| Panelists: | Marcelle Chauvet, University of California, Riverside | |
| Frank Diebold, University of Pennsylvania | ||
| James D. Hamilton, University of California, San Diego | ||
| Noon | Adjournment | |
