September 2002
Will America Lose the War It Won in Afghanistan?

On September 26, 2002, Hedayat Amin Arsala, vice president of Afghanistan, spoke on the relationship between democracy and stability in Afghanistan and the progress his country has made since the fall of the Taliban regime. He discussed the importance of building modern, democratic institutions, emphasizing in particular the need for a national defense ministry, security agency, professional army, and police force. He noted that the assistance promised by the international community has been slow to materialize and expressed his hope that commitments will be kept.

For over two decades, the Afghan people have been ruled by governments in which they have had no political voice. The lack of democratic governance has led to instability, societal decay, drug trafficking, and terrorism. In the aftermath of the war against the Soviet Union, the Afghan state was completely destroyed and the Taliban took power. Al Qaeda became a dominant political force and used Afghanistan as a base for launching terrorist attacks around the world.

In order to promote peace and stability in Afghanistan, it is essential that the government have the mandate of the people. The democratization process initiated in Bonn by the UN has been a positive development for Afghanistan. The interim government has accomplished a number of important tasks: a reasonable degree of security has been established, fiscal discipline has been imposed, and the groundwork for monetary and fiscal reform has been laid. An increase in private sector economic activity has given the people of Afghanistan hope for economic revival.

The Loya Jirga was an important step in the democratization process. Representation at the Loya Jirga was mostly equitable. For the first time in Afghan history, women participated and won elections; one woman was even nominated for the presidency. Yet there were some flaws in the process. Some grassroots movements were not given the opportunity to participate fully while warlords and extremists acted as key players. The government that emerged is less balanced than the interim government was, but these problems will be solved over time.

A committee has been established to draft a new constitution. The 1964 constitution will be used as a model for the new document. General elections are to be held by 2004. Some of the mechanics of democracy, such as voting registries, will require substantial institutional support. It is most important to develop political institutions that can play a positive, moderate role and move the country in a democratic direction.

A national army and professional police force are integral to the future stability of the state. These forces must not be affiliated with political factions or warlords. There may be attempts by different groups to maintain parallel armies or security forces, but these efforts must be stopped at all costs. Afghanistan must also create a national defense ministry in which the people can have confidence; only then will they give up their arms and send their children to serve in the national army rather than a factional force. A new national security agency consistent with democratic norms must replace the current agency, which is based on the Soviet model.

Reconstruction is the most critical issue that Afghanistan faces. Afghanistan will not succeed in creating a democracy unless the government can show the people that it can rebuild the country and prove that the world is willing and able to provide the necessary support. The assistance received from the international community has been rather limited, and funds have not been arriving as quickly as expected. The government is hopeful that the promised assistance will arrive more quickly; otherwise development efforts will be severely impeded.

Afghanistan's development strategy should be based on two concepts. First, to force Afghanistan into the twenty-first century with fast-track development that uses the latest technologies and creative projects and programs. Second, to account for regional as well as national needs. Afghanistan can once again become a trade center for the region, linking Central Asia with South Asia and East Asia with West Asia. In order to support this economic objective, Afghanistan must develop friendly relations with its neighbors.

The Afghan government hopes that the international community and especially the United States will make a long-term commitment to the reconstruction and development of the country. The United States and others should help Afghanistan build the political institutions required for democracy and support proponents of democracy. The United States should focus on the broad goals of reconstruction and political and economic development rather than primarily on the narrow goal of fighting al Qaeda and the Taliban. By completing the reconstruction of the state, terrorism and drug trafficking can be eliminated.

AEI research associate Laura Bures prepared this summary.