November 2002
Election Watch, November 2002

The AEI Political Corner scholars--Karlyn H. Bowman, Norman J. Ornstein, William Schneider, and John C. Fortier--convened on November 7 to discuss the results of the 2002 election, the latest public opinion data, the implications for future federal and state politics, and the political scene in general.

Norman J. Ornstein
AEI

Despite the shifts in power that resulted, this election was not a breakthrough for Republicans. The nation remains essentially divided. Dramatic election shifts were a result of close contests and tossup races all moving in one direction. In this election, a small number of races decided which party would control a closely divided Senate. The Republican Party successfully modeled their campaign efforts after previous Democratic initiatives, using a bottom-up approach to their get-out-the-vote efforts.

Despite extensive analysis, beforehand, it was never clear what the final outcome of this election would be. The polls showed little indication of what would happen all the way up to Election Day. Late-breaking trends in this election were a major deciding factor in electoral results.

Looking ahead to the 2004 election, the Democrats' chances to regain control of the Senate are uncertain. Democrats up for reelection in 2004 are not particularly strong; however, there are also vulnerable Republicans.

Karlyn H. Bowman
AEI

Exit polls usually provided by the Voter News Service will not be available for this election. For this reason there is no national demographic data available about voters and voting patterns.

The polls showed an interesting breakdown on the issues. Voters said they were more confident that the Republicans had a clear plan for the country. Although the issue of the economy did not work in President Bush's favor, voters still did not hold him accountable for it. One poll showed 51 percent of Americans in favor of keeping or increasing the tax cuts. Respondents regarded both parties as too influenced by large corporations. Yet, voters continue to worry more about the power of government. Americans believe that the United States is going to war with Iraq. A recent poll suggests that 68 percent of Americans expect to see military action, and this belief does not differ by party affiliation. A majority of people support action in Iraq but would still prefer to give negotiations more time.

For pollsters, the 2004 campaign actually began with the election in 2000. According to a recent poll, if the 2004 presidential election were held now, more voters would cast their ballot for President Bush than for a Democratic candidate. A majority of voters now "remember" voting for President Bush over Al Gore in the 2000 election.

William Schneider
AEI

Republicans point to President Bush as the key to their success. Bush had a job approval rating of 66 percent in an election night poll. Those voters who identified themselves as independents gave him a 61 percent job approval rating, and Democrats gave him a rating of 30-40 percent.

Late-deciding voters cast one-fourth of the ballots in this election. They became a crucial component of the election results, and voted overwhelmingly in favor of the Republicans. The Republicans failed to win the battle over the issues as voters favored the Democrats on the issues they said were most important--the economy, education, Social Security, and Medicare. Crime, taxes, and moral values--issues on which the Republicans traditionally have the advantage--were not the top concerns of voters. Nor, despite expectations, were the war on terrorism and Iraq. However, issues did not determine the election outcome. Instead, the popularity of President Bush was the driving force in mobilizing Republicans to vote.

President Bush took a risk by making himself the central election issue. Had this tactic failed, it might have cost him much of this administration's momentum.

John C. Fortier
AEI

Republicans surpassed expectations this year not only in federal elections, but also by gaining 200 seats in state legislatures. Looking at the House of Representatives from a geographical perspective, we see the majority of House seats are in the South and the West, growing regions in which the Republicans are strong. Additionally, we see the Midwest moving in a Republican direction. The Democrats are strongest in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states and along the Pacific Coast.

AEI research assistant Todd Weiner and intern Amanda Clemens prepared this summary.