May 2004

America's East Asian Alliances: Starting to Unravel?

The Bush administration's willingness to act unilaterally and in coalitions of the willing has led to a widespread perception that the United States is isolated on the world stage. Yet America's East Asian allies still profess their solidarity, with Australia, Japan, and South Korea--among others--contributing to the peacekeeping efforts in Iraq.

But are these alliances really as solid as they seem? Recent South Korean parliamentary elections gave victory to a party endorsed by North Korea with an overtly anti-American platform. The U.S.-China strategic partnership has been clouded by American arms sales to Taiwan and China's unyielding ideological rhetoric. Taiwan is impatient over American support of the "one-China" policy, as well as continued unwillingness to arbitrate cross-strait tensions. It seems that only Japan remains a staunch American ally in the region; however, the recent Japanese hostage crisis in Iraq and the ongoing scandal surrounding the abuse of Iraqi prisoners present a serious test to the U.S.-Japan alliance. At a May 24 AEI conference, Robyn Lim, professor of international relations at Nanzan University in Japan, and Samantha Ravich, former special adviser for national security affairs to Vice President Dick Cheney, discussed the post-9/11 role of America's East Asian alliances in U.S. security policy.

Nicholas Eberstadt
AEI

Although the general tenor regarding the American East Asian alliances is that there is no serious cause for concern in that part of the world, many experts assert that things are actually worse than believed. This panel discussion will examine the merits of both positions. 

Robyn Lim
Nanzan University, Japan

The U.S. alliance with South Korea (ROK) is indeed unraveling, as the congruence of strategic interests is eroding due to changing strategic circumstances. There are two main points of disagreement between the United States and the ROK: First, South Korea is now a de facto ally of China, as South Korea recognized China in 1992 and severed its longstanding ties with Taiwan. Second, the United States and the ROK have opposing views on how to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis. While the U.S. strategy of eliminating the North Korean nuclear treat is contingent upon the collapse of that regime, South Korea has been increasingly accommodating of North Korea. This behavior is determined by fears of North Korean WMDs and potential reunification costs.

As U.S.-South Korean relations continue to dissolve, Japan is under increasing pressure to act. Japan is no longer able to free ride on security issues as it has been able to do for more than fifty years. Its security policy has been evolving rapidly under the threat of North Korea's missiles and WMDs, albeit not rapidly enough to pay sufficient alliance dues, which continue to rise sharply. Japan has three strategic options: to strengthen its ties with the United States, to reach an agreement with China, or to pursue a multilateralist approach. However, in the face of territorial disputes with all of its neighbors, it would be prudent of Japan to recognize the fact that the United States is still its most reliable coalition partner.

Australia's geographic location attracts skepticism when U.S. strategic priorities are discussed. Nonetheless, Australia is, and has been, a crucial ally to the United States. During the Cold War, Australia was a key player in the assembly of maritime power that contained the Soviet Union. Australia has also played a vital role in maintaining stability in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, Australian forces have contributed to American initiatives and operations in the Middle East and continue to do so. Undoubtedly, Australia has been a supporter of Operation Iraqi Freedom and an important contributor to the global war on terrorism. Nonetheless, its limited commitment to the war in Iraq, underlined by the decision of Prime Minister Howard to withdraw most of the Australian forces from Iraq, brings up the question whether Australia can continue to maintain these partial commitments. The future of the U.S.-Australian alliance largely depends on the outcome of the upcoming elections later this year. The leader of the opposition, Mark Latham, has stated that, if elected, he will withdraw the remaining Australian forces from Iraq. Furthermore, in the event of a crisis over the Taiwan Strait, the United States should not expect Australia's support, since a war against China does not coincide with Australia's strategic interests.

Samantha Ravich
Long Term Strategy Project

Despite the troubles in the region--the North Korean nuclear threat, cross-strait tensions, and terrorism--U.S. relations with its East Asian allies can be viewed relatively optimistically, especially when compared to the troubling alliances with their Middle Eastern counterparts. Unlike many countries in the Middle East, the United States and its Asian allies share a basic vision of democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights. This vision is reflected in the high marks U.S. treaty allies in Asia--Australia, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand--received by Freedom House. This shared perspective on the world is a foundation for cooperation on pressing challenges in the region, such as the growing threat of terrorism.

Meaningful alliances, unlike friendships, should be based on tangible actions and not merely on rhetoric. The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), announced by President Bush in May 2003, is an example of an activist strategy ensuring that direct actions will be taken against the spread of WMDs and missile-related equipment and technologies. The eleven nations in this strategic alliance are committed to protecting the welfare and safety of citizens in the United States, Asia, and the rest of the world, thereby demonstrating that U.S. alliances in Asia are not necessarily unraveling.

Although the U.S.-South Korean alliance celebrated its fiftieth anniversary recently, the relationship has been under severe stress. A major point of contention is the North Korean nuclear threat and the means to deal with it. The perception that South Korea could find a way to live with North Korea (DPRK), and possibly seek reunification with it seems to be growing in the ROK. Conversely, the United States considers dismantling the rogue regime completely to be the only reasonable and irreversible solution to the DPRK nuclear threat. Although the U.S.-South Korean alliance is not yet unraveling, it is certain to head down that path if corrective measures are not taken.

AEI intern Angela Choi prepared this summary with AEI research assistant Assia Dosseva.