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Email Event
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In December, European leaders will decide whether to act on the European Commission's recommendation to open accession negotiations with Turkey. While the United States sees Turkey's EU membership mainly in strategic terms, European policymakers also have to consider the political, economic, and social aspects of admitting Turkey into the European Union. Such a step would alter the demographics of the European Union and change its power relations. If Turkey joins the European Union under the proposed European Constitution, Germany will no longer have most votes in the Council of Ministers or the European Parliament, the Common Agricultural Policy would face radical reform, and the borders of the European Union would stretch to the Middle East. Would these changes make a better Union?
| 12:15 p.m. | Registration | |
| 12:30 | Luncheon | |
| Welcome: | Helga Flores Trejo, Heinrich Böll Foundation | |
| Speakers: | Jonathan Davidson, Delegation of the European Commission | |
| Joost Lagendijk, Turkey Delegation, European Parliament | ||
| Zeyno Baran, Nixon Center | ||
| Moderator: | Radek Sikorski, NAI | |
| 2:00 | Adjournment | |
November 2004
Turkey in the European Union: Consequences for Europe
In December, European leaders will decide whether to act on the European Commission’s recommendation to open accession negotiations with Turkey. While the United States sees Turkey’s EU membership mainly in strategic terms, European policymakers also have to consider the political, economic, and social aspects of admitting Turkey into the European Union. Such a step would alter the demographics of the European Union and change its power relations. If Turkey joins the European Union under the proposed European Constitution, Germany will no longer have the most votes in the Council of Ministers or the European Parliament; the Common Agricultural Policy would face radical reform; and the borders of the European Union would stretch to the Middle East. On November 9, 2004, the New Atlantic Initiative and the Heinrich Boell Foundation organized a discussion to see whether these changes would make a better Union. 
Jonathan Davidson
Delegation of the European Commission
The Commission’s recommendation to start negotiations with Turkey signifies that Ankara meets the political criteria to join the European Union. This is an historic but limited step, which does not necessarily lead to Turkish membership in the EU. Even if European Union leaders decide to follow the commission’s recommendation in December, negotiations will take many years. And since Turkey’s membership in the EU will have a substantial impact on the EU budget, Turkey could not be admitted before the end of the next budgetary cycle in 2013. Turkish membership would change the Union as much as it would transform Turkey. The country would become increasingly multilateral in its foreign policy, although it would maintain its special relationship with the United States, as Great Britain has.
Joost Lagendijk
Turkey Delegation, European Parliament
The European Union would be better off with Turkey, and Europeans need to be informed of the advantages of Turkish membership. European attitudes toward Turkey’s EU membership changed after 9/11. While the politicians and the media became more favorable to it, the public started to view it with increased skepticism. The reason for this difference in opinion is the same: Turkey has a large Muslim population. But by the time Turkey joins the EU, there will be other and older EU members with large Muslim populations. Admitting Turkey into the EU would be a blow to the agenda of extremists like Osama bin Laden. It would prove that the West is not anti-Muslim, and that there are substantial benefits for Muslim states for engaging in real reform. Turkey would serve as a model for the countries of Central Asia, while the European Union would gain military capabilities. The prospect of Turkish membership in the EU would also force the union to change policies such as the Common Agricultural Policy and the Structural Funds, which together make up about 75 percent of the budget.
Membership in the EU is very different from membership in NATO because of the legislative involvement and implications. (It is as if Mexico and Canada were allowed to participate in passing legislation for the United States.) For this reason Turkey’s progress must be judged on deeds and not on government promises. Although the negotiations should be on full membership—and not on some sort of a partner status as advocated by the German Christian Democrats—the European Union should have the option of suspending these negotiations. Turkey must improve its human-rights record, especially its treatment of the Kurds. Being an EU member would make it easier for Turkey to critically reflect on its past with Armenia.
Zeyno Baran
Nixon Center
What matters most in the accession process are the views of European leaders, who see Turkey as an asset. And the more Europeans interact with Turks, the more they will understand that they share the same values. With Turkish membership, the European Union would gain the necessary tools to pursue its policies in the Middle East. Turkey could help to supply the European Union with energy resources from Central Asia, Iran, and Iraq. This is important for many Central European EU members and Germany, which are dependent on Russian energy supplies. The authorities of many EU states have not only lost control of Islamic institutions in their countries, including schools, but also have no idea of what they do. The secular government in Turkey decisively fights Wahhabism and Islamic fundamentalism. Authorities in Ankara not only protect the education system but know beforehand what the Imams are going to say during Friday service. Western governments can learn from this model.
