September 2006

Election Watch 2006 (Session I)

AEI’s Election Watch series returned in 2006 for its thirteenth season, bringing together AEI’s nationally renowned team of political analysts and other commentators. The series, which began in 1982, is the longest running election program in Washington.

This first of two sessions laid out the midterm election landscape and offered attendees insight as to what may happen on November 7.

Karlyn Bowman
AEI

The most important story of the election thus far is this year’s remarkable continuity in the national polls. For example, various polls remained steady between January and September when reporting on a large number of issues, such as how voters feel about the outlook of the country, President Bush’s job performance, and sending more troops overseas. Furthermore, the country has remained evenly divided between self-identified Republicans and Democrats.

Pollsters are attempting to predict whether either party will benefit from this stability. Most of the registered voter samples taken from the last two weeks show that Democrats have a 10 to 15 percent lead on the generic ballot question. Yet, in “likely voter” samples, many differences exist between polls.

Every poll related to terrorism this year indicates that people feel the Bush Administration has made them safer. Polls also consistently show that people believe another terrorist attack will occur on American soil. Moreover, every poll reveals that the public feels negatively toward the war in Iraq. It is unclear, however, whether this figure indicates an advantage for either Republicans or Democrats. Finally, polls are consistent in finding that most people believe they are relatively financially secure.

Norman J. Ornstein
AEI

A CBS/New York Times poll shows a 25 percent approval rate for Congress. We see a continuing disjunction between how people feel about their own members of Congress and the institution, but it is nowhere near as stark as it used to be. Also, polls show an 11 point margin between those who believe it is time for a change in their district and those who disagree. These figures indicate that the coming election will be tough for Republicans.

Many believe that Democrats are going to reclaim an advantage in the House of Representatives. A few factors make this uncertain:

First, September poll results are difficult to extrapolate to late October. A difference of a few seats gained or lost in the House would be very significant. Also, an event could occur before the elections which could affect what people are thinking about in early November.

Next, as in all midterm elections, turnout will be crucial. For example, the 2002 midterm election was rare, because the president’s party gained seats in the House. Closer examination reveals that turnout among Democrats was average, while Republicans focused on national and homeland security issues to raise their turnout levels significantly above average. Usually, in sixth year elections, the minority party’s anger raises turnout, while the majority party’s base becomes disillusioned. This often results in a difference in turnout favoring the minority party. Recently, however, Republicans have learned from Democrats and have developed a sophisticated get-out-the-vote plan and have the resources to carry it through. Funding disparities between the parties are not quite as great as newspapers suggest. In the close races, we will probably see a substantial amount of money spent by both parties. Therefore, the results of both parties’ efforts to boost turnout are unclear at the moment.

It is clear, however, that the present situation favors the Democrats. The amount of House seats in competitive races has grown from about twenty-two to forty-four. Furthermore, the vast majority of these seats are held by Republicans. Few incumbents are complacent at this point. In order to regain momentum, Republicans will focus on national and homeland security issues.

John C. Fortier
AEI

Senate races are relatively easy to analyze at the micro level, and it seems that it will be difficult for Democrats to regain a majority there. Predicting the future of the House is far more difficult. An argument can be made that the House races will tighten on the macro level after Republicans emphasize security issues and the war. The future of these races, however, is extremely uncertain.

Republicans do have an advantage on the ground. They are finding sympathetic voters in places they would not have found them before, and they are sending them detailed information to get them to the polls. This includes absentee voting, which is a way to secure votes before the election. Finally, Republicans are more centralized in their get-out-the-vote efforts.

In the end, we are likely to see a very narrow margin in both the House and the Senate. This sets up a situation for 2008 in which everything is open. Partisanship will be exacerbated, and we will probably witness a political holding pattern until 2008.

The gubernatorial races are certainly significant, but the larger battle will be fought in 2010, when redistricting will become an important issue. Usually, the president’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections. It seems as though this will continue in November as well. Six races are leaning toward changing from Republican to Democratic. A few others are very close. We are looking at a Democratic gain of about five gubernatorial seats, which seems to follow the general trend of other races.

AEI intern Seth Rokosky prepared this summary.