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May 2008 recorded the fewest American casualties in Iraq since the beginning of the war and measured violence in May and June reached the lowest levels since 2004. In advance of the U.S. presidential election in November, discussion of Iraq’s future has assumed heightened significance in public discourse. On July
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14, 2008, Senator Barack Obama published his plan for Iraq, detailing a strategy for removing American troops from Iraq in sixteen months. Senator John McCain responded in a town hall meeting in Albuquerque, highlighting the successes of the surge and reiterating the need to assess the current situation based on accurate observation from the ground before suggesting policy changes.
As Iraqis prepare for provincial elections this fall and parliamentary elections next year, AEI’s Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan of the Institute for the Study of War, and former acting Army chief of staff General Jack Keane will discuss their recent trip to Iraq, their observations on the ground, and the implications of these findings for the future of the country.
| 11:00 a.m. | Registration | |
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| 11:15 | Panelists: | Frederick W. Kagan, AEI |
| | | Kimberly Kagan, Institute for the Study of War |
| | | General Jack Keane, U.S. Army (retired) |
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| | Moderator: | Danielle Pletka, AEI |
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| 12:30 p.m. | Adjournment | |
Iraq: American Troops Need to Stay
WASHINGTON, JULY, 24, 2008--The surge has accomplished all of its major goals and made a strong Iraq possible, but only if the American military commitment continues, said three foreign policy experts on Thursday. AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan of the Institute for the Study of War, and General Jack Keane shared their findings from a recent trip to Iraq at an AEI event.
Troop levels must stay constant through the 2009 Iraqi parliamentary elections to address the inevitable friction between competing parties and help convince the Iraqi citizens of the permanence of their achievements, argued the panelists.
"We have learned from past experience in Iraq that these elections are not the end of a [political] process, but actually the beginning," said Kimberly Kagan, explaining that it is not possible to set a date for troop withdrawals based on the outcome of a single election. Iraqis are preparing for provincial elections this fall and then parliamentary elections next year.
According to the speakers, Iraq has the potential to be one of the world's largest oil exporting countries, a force for peace between the Shia and Sunni in the region, and the breadbasket of the Middle East. "Iraq is flying west and Iraq needs to have American assistance and a security partnership against Iran," said Frederick Kagan. "Iraq is the only country in the region that can counter Iran's influence."
The speakers also described improvement in three crucial areas: the military strategy in Iraq is succeeding, the Iraqi political arena has stabilized, and Iraq's relations with other countries in the region have become more secure.
"All the trends are in the right direction . . . [and] the only way [they] can be reversed is if we walk away," noted General Keane. Responding to Senator Obama's recent push for a rigid troop withdrawal timeline, Keane argued that public timetables will not work, but troop reductions based on tangible successes will.
Beyond a security agreement, Iraq desires American investment, international student exchange programs, and cultural connections. With these security and diplomatic arrangements, the panelists argued that Iraq will likely become a bulwark of democracy and relative stability in the Middle East; however, this will not be possible if American troops leave prematurely.
"Do you pull the peacekeepers out the minute the last bullet has dropped?" asked Frederick Kagan.
--ARIEL FARRAR-WELLMAN
For video, audio, and more information about this event, visit www.aei.org/event1761. For more information about AEI's Foreign and Defense Policy program, visit www.aei.org/foreignanddefense.
For media inquiries, contact Véronique Rodman at 202-862-4871 or vrodman@aei.org.
