Obama, Democrats Set for Strong Gains, AEI Observers Predict

WASHINGTON, OCTOBER 23, 2008--With less than two weeks to go, Barack Obama appears set to win the presidency, and Democrats stand to make double-digit gains in the House and approach sixty Senate seats, AEI election observers said today during an Election Watch panel. Steady Democratic leads in public opinion polls and strong Democratic fundamentals will make it difficult for John McCain and other Republicans to catch up--and, according to veteran election-watcher Norman J. Ornstein, may result in a 1980-style blowout.

Public opinion expert Karlyn Bowman characterized recent polling trends favoring Obama as stable. "Democrats now have the advantage on most issues, especially the economy," she said. Five of the most recent polls give Obama leads ranging from five to ten points, and McCain trails Obama by seven points in enthusiasm from supporters. In party identification, Democrats enjoy leads of eleven to fifteen points. Legendary political analyst Michael Barone cited these leads, along with President George W. Bush's chronically low approval ratings, as signs that "the fundamentals of the political balance favor the Democrats."

Obama is also leading in the ground game, according to Ornstein. "The anecdotal evidence as you travel around . . . is  absolutely striking," he said, adding that it is "astonishing" to see "Democrats outraising and outspending Republicans." Early and absentee voting is up this year--as many as one-third of voters may cast ballots early--and according to John C. Fortier, the nation's top expert on that subject, the trends favor the Democrats.

Barone said that Republicans have lost any advantages they may have enjoyed during this cycle, including the success of the surge in Iraq and $4-per-gallon gasoline. The continuing financial crisis has wounded McCain and the GOP. According to Barone, the announcement of the financial rescue package on September 18-19 coincided with Obama's overtaking of McCain in polling averages. McCain may have harmed his own campaign with behavior that the voters consider "impulsive," such as suspending his own campaign or threatening to boycott the first presidential debate.

Ornstein and Fortier also reviewed congressional races. Obama's strength and the negative economic outlook have endangered even more Republican seats than previously expected, Ornstein said, with Georgia's Senate race becoming a toss-up and Republicans being forced to spend money in Kentucky, Maine, and Mississippi. Fortier said that a twenty-seat Democratic gain is possible in the House of Representatives, which would return to Democrats the majorities they enjoyed in the forty years leading up to 1994--but this time with much greater ideological cohesion.

But regardless of who emerges victorious, Bowman said, this election will mark the fifty-sixth time in an unbroken string of elections dating back to George Washington. Should Obama win, it will be the twenty-third time that the White House has been handed peacefully from one party to another. This democratic track record is unrivaled, and "popularly determined, peaceful transfers of power are still rare."

--EVAN SPARKS

Video, audio, and more information about this event are available at www.aei.org/event1656/.

The final Election Watch event of 2008 will take place after the election at a luncheon on November 6. AEI's expert panelists will assess the numbers in the election, the transition process, and whether the results indicate an emerging Democratic majority or just a repudiation of the status quo. Or will there be a big electoral surprise?

For more information from AEI's political team, visit www.aei.org/politicalcorner/. Here you can read articles, subscribe to AEI's monthly Political Report, and get information about other AEI events.

For media inquiries, contact Véronique Rodman at 202.862.4870 or vrodman@aei.org.

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