Is There a Way Forward in U.S.-Russian Relations?

WASHINGTON, NOVEMBER 18, 2008--The advent of a new administration in Washington provides an opportunity to address the deep strains in the U.S.-Russian relationship. At an AEI conference on November 13, policymakers and analysts from the United States, Russia, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia gathered to discuss the current state of the U.S.-Russian relationship and potential opportunities to make progress on democratization, energy security, and missile defense.

Tom Graham, the former director for Russian affairs at the National Security Council, identified the lack of people-to-people contact and reliable communication channels as a key factor in the deteriorating relationship. Fiona Hill of the National Intelligence Council suggested that existing contacts and communication channels between Europe and Russia could serve as a useful model for the United States and Russia. According to Andrei Zolotov, editor in chief of Russia Profile, as long as Russian elites define themselves negatively vis-à-vis the United States, and elites in other post-Soviet countries define themselves negatively vis-à-vis Russia, it will be hard for these countries to communicate effectively and get past the "zero-sum" mentality.

The post-Soviet countries continue to be a battleground for influence, marked by the question of NATO membership. Georgian vice prime minister Georgi Baramidze announced that further democratization is Georgia's best possible response to the war with Russia, and he argued that "No outside power--neither Russia nor any other state--should have a sphere of influence over Georgia. No state should block Georgian desire for membership in NATO." Taras Kuzio of Kuzio Associates and Carleton University contrasted Ukraine's political development with that of both Russia and Georgia, noting that Ukraine's parliamentary system and freedom for political opposition, while messy, are positive steps forward. Petr Gladkov, formerly of the Russian Presidential Administration, argued that what is needed is not less Russian action in the region but rather more effective action. The post-Soviet space is of vital strategic interest to Russia, and Russia needs to abandon imperialist and "big brother" attitudes and become, Gladkov said, "an attractive model for its neighbors, a democratic country with a tolerant political culture, an effective public system and a foreign policy that gives its neighbors more opportunities to prosper."

Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation and Zeyno Baran of the Hudson Institute both urged the incoming Obama administration to lead the way in energy security and in encouraging Europe to diversify its sources of energy away from Russia. Europe and the United States need to focus on working with supplier countries like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and transit countries such as Georgia and Turkey, as well as consumer countries in Europe, they said, to develop and implement a comprehensive energy strategy. Socor called for the reactivation of the Transcaspian Pipeline Project, which would integrate the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline with Nabucco and the Turkey-Greece-Italy transit lines. Petr Gladkov disagreed, arguing that Azerbaijan cannot provide enough gas for the BTC pipeline and that the transit countries require Russian help to transport the gas and oil.

Missile defense will continue to be a point of controversy in the U.S.-Russian relationship. According to Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, Russia sees the placement of a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic as a unilateral decision by the United States and not the result of bilateral negotiations between countries. While the system does not currently threaten Russia, it could in the future. Czech ambassador Petr Kolar stressed that the missile system is a joint NATO project and that its placement in Poland and the Czech Republic involved extensive negotiations with both governments. The system is intended as a deterrent, he added, and Russia should not be afraid of it or treat the Czech Republic and Poland as enemies. "We don't want to dominate [Russia]; we only want to partner [with Russia]," Kolar explained.

The current state of U.S.-Russian relations is dismal. Improving them will take significant commitment, effort, prioritization, and time. Even so, the Obama administration has a unique opportunity, and casting the relationship in the larger international context may help it succeed. "The clearest single message, really, that comes from all of the discussions is that we're not really talking about pure bilateral Russian-American relations," Stephen Sestanovich of the Council on Foreign Relations said. "The biggest issues--and the most complicated ones and the most consequential ones, for American policy certainly--will include other countries."

--KARA FLOOK

For video, audio, and event information, visit www.aei.org/event1833/.

For more of AEI scholars' work on Russia, including AEI's Russian Outlook, written by Leon Aron, visit www.aei.org/russia/.

For media inquiries, contact Veronique Rodman at 202.862.4870 or vrodman@aei.org.

###