1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
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Will the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Development Round be saved by the April 2009 meeting of the G20 nations, after years of frustrating negotiations? In July 2008, WTO nations failed spectacularly to reach compromises over central issues. Then, last November, the G20 nations' call for a Doha revival as
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one key measure to address the world financial crisis also came to naught. Has anything changed?
Should the negotiations be suspended for the duration of the economic crisis--or just put out of their misery once and for all? Conversely, can the round be saved by expanding the agenda to include climate change and the environment, or labor and competition policy issues, as some have suggested? What are the implications for the global trading system and the WTO of pursuing these or other options to conclude Doha?
At this event, a panel of leading experts, comprising AEI's Claude Barfield, Aaditya Mattoo of the World Bank, former under secretary for international trade at the U.S. Department of Commerce Christopher A. Padilla, and Robert Vastine of the Coalition of Service Industries, will consider what to do with the ill-fated talks. AEI's Philip I. Levy will moderate.
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9:15 a.m. |
Registration | |
| 9:30 | Panelists: | Claude Barfield, AEI |
| Aaditya Mattoo, World Bank | ||
| Christopher A. Padilla, C&M International | ||
| Robert Vastine, Coalition of Service Industries | ||
| Moderator: | Philip I. Levy, AEI | |
| 11:00 | Adjournment |
1150 Seventeenth St., NW
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: 202-862-5906
E-mail: dharana.rijal@aei.org
American Enterprise Institute
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: 202-862-4870
E-mail: VRodman@aei.org
WASHINGTON, MARCH 27, 2009--The World Trade Organization (WTO) launched the Doha Development Round of negotiations in 2001 with the expectation that the talks would conclude in 2005. Four years later, the Doha Round is still "mired in a series of last-chance talks," AEI resident scholar Philip I. Levy noted at a March 23 conference in advance of the next meeting of the G20 nations next month. While the talks have limped along, Levy explained, "protectionism is on the march, and there is no longer any U.S. trade negotiating authority." Can--and should--the Doha Round be salvaged?
Christopher A. Padilla, the former undersecretary of commerce for international trade, outlined several possible outcomes of the Doha negotiations:
- The talks will continue for the near future
- The WTO will give up on Doha and
- Launch a new round of negotiations with an agenda that contains additional items, including the controversial issues of climate change, labor, and currency
- Turn to plurilateral negotiations on a sector basis
- Formally suspend the talks
Arguing in favor of "staying the course" and "allowing the talks to simmer along," Padilla outlined several reasons that the WTO should not set aside the Doha negotiations. He suggested that advocates of ending Doha underestimate the benefits of the round and its accomplishments thus far, especially hard-won agreements on agriculture subsidies and discipline on rules. Additionally, Padilla explained, the idea that a different round of negotiations would be more successful is "based on unrealistic expectations. . . . If we can't agree on current issues, why would we agree on more contentious ones?" Padilla also worried about the feasibility of breaking the round into smaller agreements. Although this tactic has been successful in the past, plurilateral negotiations are not currently in the best interest of Brazil, China, India, or the countries of southeast Asia, and the absence of these nations would make it hard for the negotiations to reach a critical mass. Finally, Padilla suggested that a "formal suspension [of the round] could let all the protectionist horses out of the barn," which might impair the resumption of talks at a future date. He warned that abandoning the effort of trying would be worse than trying and failing.
Padilla's position was supported by William Lane of Caterpillar Inc. and Robert Vastine of the Coalition of Service Industries. Lane forecast that a successful resolution of the round would act as a "global tax cut" during the economic crisis. However, he recognized that such a result could only be achieved with strong commitment from world leaders, focused and aggressive negotiations, and clearer communications with the public. Vastine added that although the traditional adage is "no deal is better than a bad deal," in this case, "no deal is a bad deal."
The World Bank's Aaditya Mattoo thought that rising protectionism should be the most important consideration when deciding whether or not to scrap the WTO talks. He reminded the panelists that the Doha round was initiated during a period of open markets and relative economic equilibrium, and that the negotiations are consequently not equipped to deal with the strong protectionist pressures that have surfaced in the current environment. "If protectionism remains low-grade and mutually accommodated," he explained, a continued focus on Doha would be appropriate. However, if the economic problems spark "serious protectionist reactions," Mattoo recommended that the WTO prepare for a crisis round of negotiations. "Simply freezing negotiations is not enough; we need another option. . . . If we keep on insisting on this ambitious round, we may end up with nothing and will have intense protectionism." Mattoo's Plan B involved asking the G20 countries to agree to bind at current levels and promise not to push for any environmental trade measures for five years.
Despite the other panelists' support for the Doha round, AEI's Claude Barfield felt that the only viable choice for the WTO is to suspend the talks for a year. Though he agreed with Lane's assessment that more political will and better marketing were needed, he did not think that they were achievable in the near future. "Even if Obama wanted to push this, the U.S. position on trade has hardened in the past six to nine months. . . . The EU is probably not willing to give what it was before [in concessions]. . . . [and] India is already stretched to the limits on political capital." One of the biggest problems, Barfield explained, is that "the dribbling out of these negotiations has degraded the value of the WTO."
--KAREN DUBAS
Speaker biographies
Claude Barfield is a resident scholar at AEI. He is the author or editor of a number of books on trade and science policy, including Free Trade, Sovereignty, Democracy: The Future of the World Trade Organization (AEI Press, 2001). In 1999, he coauthored Tiger by the Tail: China and the World Trade Organization (AEI Press) with Mark Groombridge. Mr. Barfield is working with Andrei Zlate on the forthcoming AEI Press book The Eagle and the Dragon: The United States, China, and the Rise of Asian Regionalism. Before coming to AEI, he served in the Gerald R. Ford administration on the staff of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee and as a co–staff director of the President’s Commission for a National Agenda for the Eighties.
William Lane is the Washington director for government affairs at Caterpillar Inc. and a leading business advocate for free trade and global engagement in Washington, D.C. Mr. Lane is a cochair of the U.S. Latin America Trade Coalition and the U.S. Global Leadership Campaign, a group supporting a robust international affairs budget. Previously, Mr. Lane founded and chaired the USA Engage Coalition and helped lead the business advocacy efforts in support of the Australia and Chile free trade agreements, as well as trade promotion authority. Mr. Lane is a member of the U.S. Industry Advisory Committee on Capital Goods. He is also an adjunct professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.
Philip I. Levy studies international trade and development at AEI. Before joining AEI, he handled international economic issues as a member of the secretary of state's policy planning staff (2005-2006), was senior economist for trade on the President's Council of Economic Advisers (2003-2005), and was a faculty member in Yale University's department of economics (1994-2003). An economist by training, he has experience in many international trade and development policy issues, including free trade agreements, trade with China, antidumping policy, welfare effects of globalization, U.S. foreign assistance policy, and economic development policy.
Aaditya Mattoo is a lead economist in the Development Research Group at the World Bank. He is leading a project on international trade in services, specializes in trade policy analysis and the operation of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and is helping enhance policymaking and negotiating capacity in developing countries. Prior to joining the Bank in 1999, Mr. Mattoo was economic counselor at the Trade in Services Division, WTO, Geneva. He also served as an economic affairs officer in the Economic Research and Analysis and Trade Policy Review Divisions at the WTO. Mr. Mattoo has lectured in economics at the University of Sussex and was lector at Churchill College, Cambridge University. He is coeditor of Development, Trade and the WTO: A Handbook (World Bank, 2002), India and the WTO (World Bank, 2003), A Handbook of International Trade in Services (Oxford University Press, 2008), Moving People to Deliver Services (World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2003), and Domestic Regulation and Services Trade Liberalization (World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2003). He has written on trade, trade in services, development, and the WTO. He has published widely in academic and other journals, and his work has been cited extensively, including in The Economist, the Financial Times, the New York Times, and Time magazine.
Christopher A. Padilla is managing director of C&M International, where he advises clients on international business, trade, and investment matters with a particular focus on Asia, Latin America, export controls, foreign direct investment reviews, and market access issues. Previously, Mr. Padilla served as undersecretary for international trade at the U.S. Department of Commerce. In this position, he worked to develop U.S. trade policy; resolved market access problems in China, India, Latin America, and other emerging markets; administered U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty trade laws; participated on the Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States; and promoted U.S. companies seeking major international procurement projects. Mr. Padilla was also appointed by President George W. Bush to serve on the Congressional-Executive Commission on the People's Republic of China in March 2008. He worked in the Bush administration from 2002 until the end of the administration with a particular focus on international trade and economic issues. As assistant secretary of commerce for export administration, Mr. Padilla was responsible for developing and implementing U.S. policies governing the export of items controlled for national security and foreign policy reasons, for promoting U.S. technology leadership in defense-critical products, and for industry compliance with international treaties governing chemical and biological weapons. In 2005–2006, Mr. Padilla served as chief of staff and senior adviser to deputy secretary of state Robert B. Zoellick, focusing on U.S.-Chinese relations, Latin America, Sudan, and international economic matters. In 2002–2005, he was assistant U.S. trade representative for intergovernmental affairs and public liaison, and he was heavily involved in building support for the Central American Free Trade Agreement, the U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement, and several other trade agreements and initiatives. Mr. Padilla has more than fifteen years of international trade experience in the private sector, where he worked in a number of international positions at AT&T and Lucent Technologies and was director of international trade relations at Eastman Kodak Company.
Robert Vastine has served as the president of Coalition of Service Industries (CSI) since January 1996. Prior to joining CSI, Mr. Vastine served as president of the Congressional Economic Leadership Institute, a bipartisan nonprofit foundation that helps educate Congress on issues affecting U.S. economic competitiveness. His extensive Capitol Hill experience includes posts as staff director of the Senate Republican Conference, minority staff director of the Senate Committee on Government Affairs, legislative director for Senator John H. Chafee (R-R.I.), and legislative assistant for Representative Thomas B. Curtis of (R-Mo.). Mr. Vastine's executive branch experience includes service as deputy assistant secretary of the treasury for international trade and raw materials policy. He also served as vice president of the oversight board of the Resolution Trust Corporation. In the private sector, Mr. Vastine was manager of national government affairs for CPC International, a major multinational food manufacturer headquartered in New Jersey. He founded the San Francisco–based Alliance for American Innovation, an association of small, high-tech companies. In recognition of his work, the governor of California appointed Mr. Vastine to the state’s Advisory Commission on Economic Development. Mr. Vastine is chairman of the official Industry Trade Advisory Committee for International Trade in Services (ITAC 10), which advises the U.S. trade representative. He was a fellow at the Institute of Politics of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is coauthor of The Kennedy Round and the Future of American Trade (Praeger, 1971) as well as articles on U.S. trade policy.
