1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
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Some analysts view Iran's June presidential elections as an opening for change in U.S.-Iranian relations. In the last election, in 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad campaigned promising to strengthen the economy. Over the past four years, his policies have yielded extraordinarily high inflation and unemployment, and the nation's array of subsidies has
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created budget shortfalls, even during periods of record oil prices. Ahmadinejad is now deeply unpopular, and there is hope that a reformist will become president. But with real political power vested in the supreme leader, to what extent is it realistic to expect Tehran to chart a new course? Further, as Iran ramps up its illicit nuclear program, continues its role as the world's foremost sponsor of terrorism, and fosters close diplomatic relations with anti-American regimes across the globe, what options exist to deter and redirect the Tehran regime? As the Obama administration defines its policy toward Iran and attempts to address the substance of U.S.-Iranian relations, what--if any--impact will the Iranian elections have?
Following a keynote address by Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (I-D-Conn.), AEI resident scholars Frederick W. Kagan and Michael Rubin and the Brookings Institution's Kenneth M. Pollack will discuss the implications of the upcoming Iranian elections for the Obama administration's policy toward Iran. Danielle Pletka, AEI's vice president for foreign and defense policy studies, will moderate.
At this event, AEI will unveil a new website, IranTracker.org, to serve as a resource for wide audiences to better understand Iran. The website will address the challenges posed by the Islamic Republic, including the nature of the Iranian regime and its activities, weapons programs, support for terrorism, and regional strategies.
| 12:45 p.m. |
Registration | |
| 1:00 | Keynote Speaker: |
U.S. Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (I-D-Conn.) |
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Panelists: | Frederick W. Kagan, AEI |
| Kenneth M. Pollack, Brookings Institution | ||
| Michael Rubin, AEI | ||
| Moderator: | Danielle Pletka, AEI | |
| 3:00 | Adjournment |
WASHINGTON, APRIL 29, 2009--As Iran approaches its presidential elections this summer, some analysts have contended that a change in leadership will provide a political opportunity to influence Iran's controversial nuclear ambitions and the Islamic Republic's destabilizing activities in the greater Middle East. On April 27, the American Enterprise Institute hosted a conference to assess what--if any--impact the Iranian elections might have on the Obama administration's formulation of U.S. policy towards Iran and to launch AEI's new Critical Threats Project website, IranTracker.org.
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Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.) speaks |
In his keynote speech, Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-D-CT) highlighted the political reality that "the overwhelming concentration of power in the Iranian political system lies not with the country's presidents, who change, but with the supreme leader, who rarely does." Accordingly, Senator Lieberman argued, the consistency with which Iran's nuclear program has developed--regardless of the political persuasion of the Iranian president--indicates that Iran is unlikely to waver in the pursuit its nuclear activities, regardless of the outcome of the June elections. Senator Lieberman advocated for the development of a comprehensive strategy that "employs all of the elements of our national power" and puts into motion a coherent plan with "goals, schedules, rewards, and punishments."
During a panel discussion after Senator Lieberman's address, AEI resident scholar Michael Rubin cautioned against U.S. engagement with Iran before the June elections. Rubin argued that a premature engagement process could potentially "undercut" the U.S. negotiating position and boost Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's popularity among Iranian voters. According to Rubin, for Ahmadinejad, "it pays to have an enemy"; therefore, the Iranian president will attempt to create obstacles for U.S. efforts at rapprochement.
Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution cautiously noted that Iranian public opinion could play a role in the influencing Iran's leaders. If the United States could appeal to the people of Iran "over the heads of the leadership," it might force Iranian leaders to respond favorably to U.S. overtures. Pollack also reiterated Senator Lieberman's message that "engagement cannot become a substitute for strategy."
AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan offered several considerations to frame engagement and negotiations in the context of a broader strategy. Using engagement as a diplomatic tool, he explained, will require a better understanding of the people and interests guiding the decisions made in Tehran. Kagan argued that sanctions have perversely strengthened destabilizing elements in Iran--including the military and security services--that deflect the negative brunt of economic sanctions onto the Iranian populace. For this reason, sanctions need to be assessed holistically, taking into account their human costs and policy ramifications.
The United States must be prepared to counter the destabilizing activities of the Iranian Qods Force wherever possible, Kagan added. The question of whether or not the United States is prepared to use military means to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is critical, and the answer must factor into how the United States ultimately engages Iran.
The panelists agreed that, while not irrelevant, the upcoming presidential elections in Iran will have minimal impact on Iran's nuclear activities. Furthermore, U.S. engagement with Iran remains a tactical maneuver and will need to be underpinned by a comprehensive strategy that uses all elements of national power and clearly establishes goals and benchmarks. Such a strategy will be critical because, as Senator Lieberman noted, "the dangers of a nuclear Iran cannot be denied, diminished, or dismissed."
--MASEH ZARIF
Speaker biographies
Frederick W. Kagan is a resident scholar in defense and security policy studies at AEI. His most recent book, Ground Truth: The Future of U.S. Land Power (AEI Press), which he coauthored with AEI resident fellow Thomas Donnelly, was published in May 2008. Previously an associate professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, he is the author of Finding the Target: The Transformation of American Military Policy (Encounter Books, 2006) and The End of the Old Order: Napoleon and Europe, 1801–1805 (Da Capo, 2006) and coauthor of While America Sleeps: Self-Delusion, Military Weakness, and the Threat to Peace Today (St. Martin's Press, 2000). A contributing editor at The Weekly Standard, he has also written numerous articles on defense and foreign policy issues for Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, Policy Review, Commentary, Parameters, and other periodicals.
Joseph I. Lieberman (I-D-Conn.) was elected to his fourth term in the U.S. Senate on November 7, 2006. He was elected to the Connecticut State Senate in 1970 and served there for ten years, the last six as majority leader. In 1980, he returned to private legal practice for two years, and from 1983 through 1988, he served as Connecticut's twenty-first attorney general. Senator Lieberman was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1988. He is the chairman and former ranking member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. He is currently a member of the Environment and Public Works Committee, for which he is the chairman of the Subcommittee on Private Sector and Consumer Solutions to Global Warming and Wildlife Protection. He is also a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, for which he is ranking member of the Subcommittee on Air-Land Forces and sits on the Personnel and Sea Power Subcommittees, and the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee.
Danielle Pletka is the vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at AEI. Her research areas include the Middle East, South Asia, terrorism, and weapons proliferation. Before coming to AEI, Ms. Pletka served for ten years as a senior professional staff member for the Near East and South Asia on the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. Since joining AEI, Ms. Pletka has developed a conference series on rebuilding post-Saddam Iraq, directed a project on democracy in the Arab world, and designed a project to track global business in Iran. She was a member of the congressionally mandated U.S. Institute of Peace Task Force on the United Nations, which released its final report in 2005. She recently coedited Dissent and Reform in the Arab World: Empowering Democrats (AEI Press, 2008) and coauthored the 2008 AEI report Iranian Influence in the Levant, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Kenneth M. Pollack is an expert on Middle Eastern political-military affairs, with particular emphasis on Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Persian Gulf region. He is currently a senior fellow and director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. Mr. Pollack began his career as an Iran-Iraq military analyst at the CIA, where he was an employee from 1988 until 1995. During that time, he was the principal author of the CIA's classified postmortem on Iraqi strategy and military operations during the Persian Gulf War. Mr. Pollack received the CIA's Certificate of Distinction for Outstanding Performance of Duty for work both before and during the Persian Gulf War. He also twice received the CIA's Exceptional Performance Award, also for work related to the Persian Gulf War. Mr. Pollack has twice served on the staff of the National Security Council, as both director for Near East and South Asian affairs and director for Persian Gulf affairs. In this latter capacity, he was the principal working-level official at the White House for U.S. policy toward Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and the Gulf Cooperation Council states. Mr. Pollack's most recent book is A Path Out of the Desert: A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East (Random House, 2008).
Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at AEI and a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations. He is a former editor of the Middle East Quarterly. Mr. Rubin previously served as an Iran and Iraq country director in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and as a political adviser in the Coalition Provisional Authority. He is the author of two books about Iranian history and politics, most recently Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave Macmillan, 2005), and he publishes articles in a range of scholarly and policy journals. Mr. Rubin lectures frequently on the politics, culture, and strategy of Middle Eastern, Central Asian, and South Asian countries to senior military officers deploying to Iraq and Afghanistan. He is a regular contributor to major U.S. and Middle Eastern newspapers.
