China Since Tiananmen: Power, Party, and Society
About This Event

In June 1989, seven weeks of peaceful demonstrations in China ended in bloodshed when the People's Liberation Army was ordered to disband protesters in Tiananmen Square. Hundreds, if not thousands, were killed, and the incident became a defining moment in modern Chinese history. Though the demonstrators' hopes for a democratic Listen to Audio


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society have not yet been realized, China has undergone significant changes since 1989.

What effects has Tiananmen had on the development of civil society in China? Has the Chinese Communist Party taken any substantive steps to reform itself and its rule? How have China's military modernization and economic development proceeded over the past two decades, and what are the strategic implications for the United States and its allies in Asia? At this event, leading experts on China will discuss these and other questions in a series of panel discussions to mark Tiananmen's twentieth anniversary.

The event will also mark the release of
The Rise of China: Essays on the Future Competition (Encounter, 2009), edited by AEI's Gary J. Schmitt. Contributors to the volume challenge the prevailing benign view of China's rise and analyze what the United States and its allies might do in the areas of foreign and defense affairs to meet the challenges posed by China's increased political, economic, and military power. AEI's Nicholas Eberstadt, along with Robert Kagan and Ashley J. Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, will discuss their essays in the volume and prospects for U.S.-Chinese relations in the years ahead.

Agenda
Event Contact Information
Michael Mazza
American Enterprise Institute
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: 202-828-6027
E-mail: michael.mazza@aei.org
Media Contact Information
Veronique Rodman
American Enterprise Institute
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: 202-862-4870
E-mail: VRodman@aei.org

Speaker biographies

Tim Adams is managing director of the Lindsey Group. Previously, Mr. Adams served as under secretary of the treasury for international affairs. As such, Mr. Adams was the administration's point person on international financial issues, including exchange rate policy, G7 meetings, and International Monetary Fund and World Bank issues. He regularly interacted with counterparts in key emerging markets, including China, India, and Brazil, and traveled extensively throughout Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Prior to assuming his post as under secretary, Mr. Adams served as chief of staff to Treasury Secretaries Paul O'Neill and John Snow. He was policy director for the Bush-Cheney reelection campaign from November 2003 through the end of 2004 and also served as a full-time member of the Bush-Cheney campaign staff in Austin in the 2000 campaign. Mr. Adams also served in the White House under George H. W. Bush at the Office of Policy Development. In 1993, Mr. Adams cofounded the G7 Group, a Washington-based advisory firm. He later headed their Washington operations as managing director.

Carolyn Bartholomew was reappointed to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on December 19, 2007, for a fourth term, expiring December 31, 2009. Ms. Bartholomew previously served as the commission's vice chairman and chairman for the 2006 and 2007 report cycles, respectively. She worked at senior levels in the U.S. Congress, serving as counsel, legislative director, and chief of staff to Speaker Pelosi. She also served as a professional staff member on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Previously, she was a legislative assistant to then–U.S. representative Bill Richardson (D-N.M.). Ms. Bartholomew has particular expertise in U.S.-Chinese relations, focused primarily on trade, human rights, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. She was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations congressional staff roundtable on Asian political and security issues. Her additional areas of expertise include terrorism, trade, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, human rights, U.S. foreign assistance programs, and international environmental issues.

Dan Blumenthal joined AEI in November 2004 as a resident fellow in Asian studies. He has served on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission since 2005, serving as vice chairman in 2007, and as a member of the Academic Advisory Board for the Congressional U.S.-China Working Group. Previously, Mr. Blumenthal was senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs during the first George W. Bush administration. In addition to writing for AEI's Asian Outlook series, he has written articles and op-eds for the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, The Weekly Standard, National Review, and numerous edited volumes. He is currently working on a manuscript that will examine divides within the China policymaking community.

Bruce Dickson is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, where he joined the faculty in 1993 and teaches on China, comparative politics, and democratization. Mr. Dickson is currently examining the political consequences of economic reform in China, in particular the relationship between private entrepreneurs and the Chinese Communist Party. For the 2006–2007 academic year he received a fellowship from the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars for his project "Turning Wealth into Power: The Evolving Political Influence of China's 'Red Capitalists.'" Mr. Dickson is the author of Wealth into Power: The Communist Party's Embrace of China's Private Sector (Cambridge University Press, 2008); Red Capitalists in China: The Party, Private Entrepreneurs, and Prospects for Political Change (Cambridge University Press, 2003); and Democratization in China and Taiwan: The Adaptability of Leninist Parties (Oxford University Press, 1997) and is coeditor of four other books. His articles have appeared in Asian Survey, China Quarterly, Comparative Politics, Comparative Political Studies, the Journal of Contemporary China, the Journal of Democracy, The National Interest, and Political Science Quarterly. He is a frequent commentator on political developments in China and Taiwan and on U.S.-Chinese relations, and he has appeared on CNN, National Public Radio, BBC, and Voice of America.

Steven Dunaway is an adjunct senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is engaged in research on global imbalances and the international financial system and country work on the economies of the United States, China, emerging market countries of East Asia, and Eastern and Southern European countries. Previously, Mr. Dunaway was deputy director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). From November 2001 until December 2008, he was primarily responsible for directing the IMF's country work on China and headed the IMF's consultation missions with the Chinese government. Prior to coming to the IMF, Mr. Dunaway worked for ten years at the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the U.S. Department of Commerce, doing analysis and forecasting of U.S. international transactions.

Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at AEI and is also a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research in Seattle. He serves on the advisory board of the Korea Economic Institute of America and is a founding member of the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. Mr. Eberstadt is currently, inter alia, a member of the President's Council on Bioethics and the Visiting Committee for the Harvard School of Public Health. Mr. Eberstadt is regularly consulted by governmental and international organizations, including the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the World Bank. Mr. Eberstadt has published over three hundred studies and articles in scholarly and popular journals, mainly on topics in demography, international development, and East Asian security. His dozen-plus books and monographs include The Poverty of Communism (Transaction, 1988); The Tyranny of Numbers (AEI Press, 1995); The End of North Korea (AEI Press, 1999); Korea's Future and the Great Powers (University of Washington Press, 2001); The North Korean Economy: Between Crisis and Catastrophe (Transaction, 2007); Europe's Coming Demographic Challenge: Unlocking the Value of Health (AEI Press, 2007); and, most recently, The Poverty of 'The Poverty Rate': Measure and Mismeasure of Want in Modern America (AEI Press, 2008).

Bruce Gilley is an assistant professor of political science in the Hatfield School of Government at Portland State University. His research centers on democracy, legitimacy, and global politics, and he is a specialist on the comparative politics of China and Asia. He is the author of The Right to Rule: How States Win and Lose Legitimacy (Columbia University Press, 2009) and China's Democratic Future (Columbia University Press, 2004), among others, and has coedited several volumes. His articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Comparative Political Studies, the Journal of Contemporary China, and the European Journal of Political Research. A member of the editorial board of the Journal of Democracy, Mr. Gilley has received grants from the Smith Richardson Foundation and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. He was a Commonwealth Scholar at Oxford University from 1989 to 1991 and a Woodrow Wilson Scholar at Princeton University from 2004 to 2006. From 1995 to 2002, he was a correspondent and then contributing editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review.

Carol Lee Hamrin is a research professor at George Mason University and a senior associate at the Global China Center. With twenty-five years as a senior research specialist at the U.S. Department of State, Ms. Hamrin provides a long-term perspective on the remarkable transformation underway in China. Her research focuses on how the dynamics that drive market reforms spill over into social and cultural arenas, with implications for China's ambitions as a great power and for the many aspects of U.S.-Chinese relations, from societal ties to government to business. Ms. Hamrin advises nonprofit organizations supporting social services and training projects for the development of China's third sector, works on human rights and religious rights policy issues, and writes on culture and religion. Ms. Hamrin earned the Secretary of State's Career Achievement Award in 2000 and received the Center for Public Justice Leadership Award for outstanding public service in 2003. She has taught in Washington, D.C.–area graduate schools and has published widely.

Robert Kagan is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His most recent book is The Return of History and the End of Dreams (Knopf, 2008). His previous book, Dangerous Nation: America's Place in the World from Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the 20th Century (Knopf, 2006), was the winner of the 2008 Lepgold Prize and a 2007 finalist for the Lionel Gelber Prize. His acclaimed book Of Paradise and Power (Knopf, 2003) was on the New York Times bestseller list for ten weeks and the Washington Post bestseller list for fourteen weeks. Mr. Kagan writes a monthly column on world affairs for the Washington Post and is a contributing editor at both The Weekly Standard and The New Republic. He is listed as one of the world's "Top 100 Public Intellectuals" by Foreign Policy and Prospect magazines. He served in the U.S. State Department from 1984 to 1988 as a member of the Policy Planning Staff, as principal speechwriter for Secretary of State George P. Shultz, and as deputy for policy in the Bureau of Inter-American Affairs.

Desmond Lachman joined AEI as a resident fellow after serving as a managing director and chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. He previously served as deputy director in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Policy and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of IMF policies toward emerging markets. Mr. Lachman has written on topics such as economic policy, fund arrangements, monetary reform, import restrictions, and exchange rates. At AEI, he studies major emerging market economies and the role of multilateral lending institutions.

Perry Link is the Chancellorial Chair for Innovative Teaching and a professor of comparative literature and foreign languages at the University of California, Riverside. He taught Chinese language and literature at Princeton University (1973–77 and 1989–2008) and UCLA (1977–88). He has published in the fields of modern Chinese language, literature, popular culture, intellectual history, art, and politics. His current research is on rhythm, metaphor, and politics in contemporary Chinese language. His recent books are The Uses of Literature: Life in the Socialist Chinese Literary System (Princeton University Press, 2000); Two Kinds of Truth: Stories and Reportage from China (Indian University Press, 2006); and Chinese Primer (Princeton University Press, 1994), an elementary Chinese textbook.

Clay Lowery is a managing director of the Glover Park Group, a firm that specializes in strategic consulting, government relations, and public affairs for U.S. and international clients. Previously, Mr. Lowery served as the assistant secretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department from November 2005 to January 2009. As such, Mr. Lowery supported Treasury Secretaries John Snow and Henry Paulson in the formulation and execution of U.S. international economic policy. Mr. Lowery chaired the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States and served as either the finance deputy or deputy deputy to the G20, the G7, and the Financial Stability Forum. He also served as the under secretary for international affairs and was appointed by the president at various times to be the U.S. representative to the boards of the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Inter-American Development Bank. Mr. Lowery's responsibilities included guidance and oversight in the areas of economic and financial diplomacy, monetary affairs, currency strategy, U.S. participation in the international financial institutions, trade and investment policies including sovereign wealth funds, and development policy.

Gary J. Schmitt is a resident scholar at AEI, where he is director of the Program on Advanced Strategic Studies. Prior to coming to AEI, he helped found and served as the executive director of the Project for the New American Century, a Washington-based foreign and defense policy think tank. Previously, Mr. Schmitt was a member of the professional staff of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and served as the committee's minority staff director. In 1984, he was appointed by President Ronald Reagan to the post of executive director of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board at the White House. Mr. Schmitt is the coeditor, with Thomas Donnelly, of Of Men and Materiel: The Crisis in Military Resources (AEI Press, 2007). Mr. Schmitt has written books and articles on a number of topics, including the founding of America, the U.S. presidency, intelligence, and national security affairs.

Randall Schriver is a founding partner of Armitage International and the president and CEO of the Project 2049 Institute. He previously served as deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs from 2003 to 2005 and as chief of staff and senior policy advisor to then–deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage from 2001 to 2003. Prior to his work at the State Department, he was an independent consultant and a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense as a presidential management fellow from 1994 to 1998. Mr. Schriver has also served as an active-duty naval intelligence officer. He was on the Bush-Cheney Defense Transition Team and was a member of the Asia policy team for the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2000. He has won numerous military and civilian awards from the U.S. government and was recently presented with the Order of the Propitious Clouds by the president of Taiwan for promoting U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Ashley J. Tellis is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues. While on assignment to the U.S. Department of State as senior adviser to the under secretary of state for political affairs, he was intimately involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement with India. Previously, he was commissioned into the Foreign Service and served as a senior adviser to the ambassador at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. He also served on the National Security Council staff as a special assistant to the president and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia. Prior to his government service, Mr. Tellis was a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the RAND Graduate School. He is the author of India's Emerging Nuclear Posture (Rand Corporation, 2001) and coauthor of Interpreting China's Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (Rand Corporation, 2000). He is the research director of the Strategic Asia Program at the National Bureau of Asian Research and coeditor of the five most recent annual volumes, including this year's Strategic Asia 2008–09: Challenges and Choices.

Colonel Larry Wortzel (U.S. Army, retired) is the former director of the Asian Studies Center and vice president for foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation. He has also served as director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College. Colonel Wortzel was assistant Army attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing during the Tiananmen massacre and later served another tour of duty there as Army attaché. He is a commissioner on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and served as the commission's chairman during the 2006 and 2008 report cycles.

Xiao Qiang is an adjunct professor in the Graduate School of Journalism at the University of California, Berkeley, and the director of the Berkeley China Internet Project, a faculty-student research project focused on improving access to, interpreting, and understanding Chinese cyberspace. He is also the founder and editor-in-chief of the China Digital Times, a collaborative news website that aggregates the most up-to-the-minute news and analysis about China from around the Web, while also providing translations, multimedia features, and other content from Chinese cyberspace. Mr. Xiao studied theoretical physics in China and the United States in the 1980s and has been a long-time human rights activist. He was a recipient of the MacArthur Fellowship in 2001 and is profiled in the book Soul Purpose: 40 People Who Are Changing the World for the Better.

Toshi Yoshihara is a professor in the Strategy and Policy Department at the Naval War College and is a senior research fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. He previously served as a visiting professor at the U.S. Air War College in Montgomery, Alabama, and as a research analyst at the RAND Corporation and AEI. His research interests include U.S. alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, China's military modernization, Chinese strategic culture, security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula, Japan's defense policy, and Chinese-Taiwan relations. Mr. Yoshihara's current research agenda encompasses China's strategic interests in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, the evolution of Chinese-South Korean relations, the geostrategic dimensions of Korean unification, and Taiwan's civil-military relations.

Maochun Yu is a professor of East Asia and military history at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. He is the author of The Dragon's War: Allied Operations and the Fate of China, 1937–1947 (Naval Institute Press, 2006), OSS in China--Prelude to Cold War (Yale University Press, 1997), and numerous articles on modern China and the military and intelligence history of World War II and the Cold War. He was recently selected as the top researcher of the Naval Academy and received the academy's Research Excellence Award.

AEI Participants

 

Dan
Blumenthal
  • Dan Blumenthal is a current commissioner and former vice chairman of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, where he directs efforts to monitor, investigate, and provide recommendations on the national security implications of the economic relationship between the two countries. Previously, he was senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia in the Secretary of Defense's Office of International Security Affairs and practiced law in New York prior to his government service. At AEI, in addition to his work on the national security implications of U.S.-Sino relations, he coordinates the Tocqueville on China project, which examines the underlying civic culture of post-Mao China. Mr. Blumenthal also contributes to AEI's Asian Outlook series and is a research associate with the National Asia Research Program.
  • Phone: 202-862-5861
    Email: dblumenthal@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Lara Crouch
    Phone: 202-862-7160
    Email: lara.crouch@aei.org

 

Nicholas
Eberstadt
  • Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist and a demographer by training, is also a senior adviser to the National Board of Asian Research, a member of the visiting committee at the Harvard School of Public Health, and a member of the Global Leadership Council at the World Economic Forum. He researches and writes extensively on economic development, foreign aid, global health, demographics, and poverty. He is the author of numerous monographs and articles on North and South Korea, East Asia, and countries of the former Soviet Union. His books range from The End of North Korea (AEI Press, 1999) to The Poverty of the Poverty Rate (AEI Press, 2008).

     

  • Phone: 202-862-5825
    Email: eberstadt@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Kelly Matush
    Phone: 202-862-5835
    Email: kelly.matush@aei.org

 

Desmond
Lachman
  • Desmond Lachman joined AEI after serving as a managing director and chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. He previously served as deputy director in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of IMF policies. Mr. Lachman has written extensively on the global economic crisis, the U.S. housing market bust, the U.S. dollar, and the strains in the euro area. At AEI, Mr. Lachman is focused on the global macroeconomy, global currency issues, and the multilateral lending agencies.
  • Phone: 202-862-5844
    Email: dlachman@aei.org

 

Gary J.
Schmitt
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