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A week before election day, AEI's Election Watch team returns for a session on the 2009 gubernatorial races, President Obama's standing, and an early look at the 2010 Senate and House contests. Who is likely to win in New Jersey and Virginia on November 3 and what is it likely
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to mean? How is President Obama faring in public opinion? How does his standing compare to other presidents a year into their terms? What do we know about the 2010 contests at this early stage? These and other questions will be discussed by AEI's team of nationally renowned political analysts: Michael Barone, John C. Fortier, David Frum, and Norman J. Ornstein. AEI senior fellow and American public opinion expert Karlyn Bowman will be the moderator.
This event is part of AEI's Election Watch series, the longest continuous election program in Washington since 1982.
| 8:00 a.m. | Registration and Breakfast |
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| 8:30 | Panelists: | Michael Barone, AEI |
| John C. Fortier, AEI | ||
| David Frum, AEI | ||
| Norman J. Ornstein, AEI | ||
| Moderator: | Karlyn Bowman, AEI | |
| 10:00 a.m. | Adjournment |
WASHINGTON, OCTOBER 27, 2009--Speaking a week before voters go to the polls in two key gubernatorial contests, AEI's Election Watch team discussed the 2009 races, President Obama's standing, and the 2010 Senate and House contests. The panel included Karlyn Bowman, who moderated, Michael Barone, Norman Ornstein, John Fortier, and David Frum.
Speaking at AEI's Wohlstetter Conference Center, Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at AEI, began the discussion by pointing out that although Obama's approval ratings dropped more than other presidents between the second and third quarters of the first year of his presidency, his more recent ratings have stabilized and even ticked up. The danger signs for Obama are his marks on the economy, the deficit, and taxes. While congressional approval is always low, Ms. Bowman noted, Congress's current ratings are especially low now, and being driven down by the Democrats.
Michael Barone, a resident fellow at AEI, followed by arguing that the upcoming New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections are being driven by state issues and the personalities of the candidates. In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell's likely victory is attributable to the facts that Democrat Creigh Deeds has failed to build a rural base and has not sparked much enthusiasm. In New Jersey, Chris Daggett, a third-party candidate who has polled as high as nineteen percent, has helped to make that gubernatorial election too close to call. However, Mr. Barone cautioned against relying too heavily on Daggett's poll numbers, stating that the real strength of third party candidates often is difficult to measure accurately in polls. Mr. Barone also commented that the House election in New York's twenty-third congressional district was another election to watch closely. While historically controlled by Republicans, the GOP-backed candidate, Dede Scozzafava, has been getting a lot of negative press. Notable Republican leaders such as Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty have backed the third-party candidate, while Newt Gingrich has endorsed Scozzafava.
Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at AEI, noted that individual circumstances matter a lot in these upcoming elections. Obama is not much of a factor. However, these elections will have national implications. Most importantly, the election results will affect the behavior of Democratic moderates, which will have an impact on how health care reform goes forward. A natural inclination of representatives during a president's first midterm election, Mr. Ornstein noted, is "to get a little distance from the president . . . to move a little but against the grain of your party." Even with these limitations, Harry Reid's risky strategy to back a bill with a public option largely depends on the Congressional Budget Office's estimates concerning the health care bill. Mr. Ornstein concluded his remarks by saying that base support is going to be critical for Democrats and Republicans in the coming elections: "If you give one party power of the government and they don't do anything with it, voters don't really care about excuses."
John Fortier, a research fellow at AEI, followed Mr. Ornstein by analyzing the upcoming Senate races in 2010. A year ago, Mr. Fortier argued, Republicans were on far more unfavorable ground than they are today. A number of developments since last year have placed Republicans in a position to pick up around two Senate seats. Mr. Fortier said one of the key reasons for this is that Republicans do not have as many troubled incumbents as Democrats. The Delaware, Connecticut, Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Arkansas Senate races topped Mr. Fortier's list of races to watch.
David Frum, a resident fellow at AEI, argued that 2009 will not be like 1993 for Republicans. There has been a decline in Republican self-identification, with a growing number of Americans identifying themselves as independents. However, independents are not a static category and are "a very reachable part of the electorate," he said. Mr. Frum also argued there were strong potential lessons for Republicans in the past Canadian election and the upcoming British elections. In England, the likely conservative landslide might prove that a compassionate conservative approach is a viable one for Republicans in 2012, especially if the Republicans fail to win in 2009 and 2010. While Canada has less impact in the American press, the right-of-center party in Canada might be an appealing model for Republicans in the United States.
--ANDREW RUGG
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Michael Barone is a resident fellow at AEI, where he studies politics, American government, and campaigns and elections, as well as a political analyst and journalist. The principal coauthor of the biennial Almanac of American Politics (National Journal Group), he has written many books on American politics and history, including, most recently, Our First Revolution: The Remarkable British Upheaval That Inspired America’s Founding Fathers (Random House/Crown Forum, 2007). Mr. Barone is also a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner and is a Fox News Channel contributor.
Karlyn Bowman is a senior fellow at AEI. She compiles and analyzes American public opinion using available polling data on a variety of subjects, including the economy, taxes, the state of workers in America, environment and global warming, attitudes about homosexuality and gay marriage, NAFTA and free trade, the war in Iraq, and women's attitudes. In addition, Ms. Bowman has studied and spoken about the evolution of American politics because of key demographic and geographic changes. She has often lectured on the role of think tanks in the United States, has written the definitive history of AEI, and writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.
John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI. He studies American politics, the presidency, continuity of government, elections, the Electoral College, election reform, and presidential succession and disability. He is the senior counselor to the AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project, executive director of the Continuity of Government Commission, and a fortnightly columnist for Politico. Mr. Fortier's books include Absentee and Early Voting: Trends, Promises, and Perils (AEI Press, 2006); After the People Vote: A Guide to the Electoral College (third edition, AEI Press, 2004); and Second-Term Blues: How George W. Bush Has Governed (Brookings Institution Press, 2007). He is also a frequent radio and television commentator on the presidency, Congress, and elections.
David Frum is a resident fellow at AEI and the author of six books, most recently, Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again (Doubleday, 2007). He studies recent political, generational, and demographic trends and warns that the conservatism of the 1980s will have to revise and reinvent itself to compete in twenty-first-century America. In 2007, the British newspaper Daily Telegraph named him one of America's fifty most influential conservatives. Mr. Frum is a regular commentator on public radio’s Marketplace and a columnist for The Week and Canada’s National Post. He also edits the NewMajority.com website. He is currently at work on a book about the decline of the Republican Party in California since 1990.
Norman J. Ornstein is a resident scholar at AEI. He also serves as an election analyst for CBS News and writes a weekly column called "Congress Inside Out" for Roll Call. He has written for the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, and other major publications, and he regularly appears on television programs such as Nightline, Charlie Rose, and The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, where he was recently recognized as the most frequent guest over the program’s thirty years. Mr. Ornstein's campaign finance working group of scholars and practitioners helped shape the major law, known as McCain-Feingold, that reformed the campaign financing system. He serves as senior counselor to the Continuity of Government Commission and as codirector of the AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project. Mr. Ornstein is a member of the boards of the Public Broadcasting Service, the Campaign Legal Center, and the U.S. Capitol Historical Society. He was elected as a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2004. His many books include The Permanent Campaign and Its Future (AEI Press, 2000) and The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track (Oxford University Press, 2006), both with Thomas E. Mann; Debt and Taxes: How America Got into Its Budget Mess and What to Do About It (AEI Press, 1994), with John H. Makin; and, most recently, Vital Statistics on Congress 2008 (Brookings Institution Press, 2008), with Michael Malbin and Thomas E. Mann.
