1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
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The fight against militant Islamists in Afghanistan and Pakistan has rightly consumed the attention of American policymakers and the media in recent months. Yet the war against al Qaeda and Associated Movements extends beyond Afghanistan and northwest Pakistan. Al Qaeda has a number of franchises, aspiring franchises, and affiliates, all
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of which make up a network that is dedicated to combating the United States, its allies, and its interests around the globe. On Christmas Day, one of these groups, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, surprised the United States by attempting to bomb an airliner over Detroit. Given the numerous warning signs of the group’s increased desire to strike U.S. targets, the United States should not have been caught off guard by this attempt. Another of these groups, Somalia’s al Shabaab, has threatened to attack U.S. targets from its base in southern and central Somalia, where it controls the largest amount of territory of any militant Islamist group in the world today.
John Kiriakou, investigator for the majority staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and former Central Intelligence Agency officer; Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, director of the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Chris Harnisch, Gulf of Aden team lead at AEI's Critical Threats Project, discussed these issues. Charlie Szrom, senior analyst and program manager at AEI’s Critical Threats Project, moderated the panel. Jamie Fly, executive director of the Foreign Policy Initiative, introduced the event.
| 6:30 p.m. | Registration and Cocktail Reception | |
| 7:00 | Introduction: | Jamie Fly, Foreign Policy Initiative |
| 7:05 | Panelists: | Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies |
| Chris Harnisch, AEI | ||
| John Kiriakou, Senate Foreign Relations Committee | ||
| Moderator: | Charlie Szrom, AEI | |
| 8:00 | Adjournment |
WASHINGTON, APRIL 19, 2010--Over one hundred young professionals gathered at AEI on April 19 for a panel discussion on emerging terror threats in Yemen and Somalia. Moderator Charlie Szrom, senior analyst and program manager for AEI's Critical Threats Project (CTP), framed the discussion by stating that U.S. national security priorities rightfully continue to focus on defeating the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan; however, al Qaeda franchises and associated movements outside of the region also threaten the United States and must not be ignored. Al Qaeda has an extensive network of franchises, would-be franchises, and affiliates that are all determined to attack the United States and U.S. interests. Out of these militant Islamist groups, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and al Shabaab appear to pose the greatest threat.
Chris Harnisch, Gulf of Aden team lead for CTP, outlined the terror threats of AQAP and al Shabaab, emanating from Yemen and Somalia, respectively. There is evidence that both AQAP and al Shabaab receive operational support from al Qaeda's core leadership in Pakistan, and both groups recognize Osama bin Laden as their emir (leader) and Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, as the emir al mumineen (Commander of the Faithful). In Yemen, the government has conducted limited counterterrorism operations against al Qaeda operatives with some U.S. support, but most of the operatives that the government has claimed to kill or arrest turn out to be of little significance to the organization. In Somalia, al Shabaab has gained control of most of the southern and central regions of the country, controlling more territory than any other militant Islamist group in the world, and has established shadow governments and terrorist training camps.
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, the director of the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said that the current U.S. policy toward Yemen is similar to the confused policy landscape toward Somalia in 2006. When Ethiopia invaded Somalia in December 2006 to oust the Islamic Courts Union from power and install the UN-supported Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the United States did not have a coherent strategy; the Department of Defense (DoD) funded the Ethiopian troops, and the State Department opposed the invasion. Moreover, once the TFG was in power, State refused to give aid to the government without some political changes, primarily the empowerment of the current president, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. The result of the clash between State and DoD has been that Somali political players have lost faith in the United States.
John Kiriakou, the senior investigator on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, discussed the current situation in Yemen. The Yemeni government recognizes two primary threats to its survivability: the al Houthi rebellion in the north and the secessionist movement in the south. Furthermore, President Ali Abdullah Saleh has realized that he needs an al Qaeda presence in Yemen in order to survive and to continue receiving funding from the U.S. government. The Yemeni government does not react seriously to the presence of al Qaeda in Yemen and has permitted AQAP to establish a safe haven there. Currently, there are three dozen American ex-convicts who converted to Islam and moved to Yemen, possibly to train with al Qaeda and Anwar al Awlaki, who is a "clear and present danger to the U.S. and American citizens" and lives in one of Yemen's eastern provinces.
--KATIE ZIMMERMAN
