The world is on the brink of a complex, chaotic, inherently less stable and multipolar period. While President Barack Obama rightly focused international attention on the prospects of nuclear terrorism at the recent Nuclear Security Summit, the proliferation of nuclear weapons among nation-states is already profoundly changing the international balance
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of power.
But as the world focuses intently on Iran, the simmering conflict between the nuclear-armed states of India and Pakistan continues largely unnoticed. Pakistan-based terror groups have committed spectacular acts of violence on Indian soil, and Indian officials have quietly suggested their restraint is not limitless. The two are at loggerheads in Afghanistan, and neither side is sure of the other's red lines. Worse still, the United States is perceived by some to be regressing to a policy that favors Pakistan over India--a perception that fuels risk taking on the subcontinent.
Panelists at this joint AEI Center for Defense Studies (CDS) and Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) event discussed the impact of this nuclear threat on the delicate balance of politics, strategy, and military force in South Asia. Colonel John H. Gill, U.S. Army (retired), of the National Defense University's Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, discussed India's nuclear capabilities, strategy, and Indo-Pakistani political-military relations. Retired brigadier general Feroz Hassan Khan, a former director of arms control and disarmament affairs in the Joint Services Headquarters of the Pakistani Army, discussed Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and explain how the risk of nuclear war in South Asia can be mitigated. Henry Sokolski, executive director of NPEC, presented the findings of two recent international conferences on the issue. Thomas Donnelly, director of CDS, moderated the event and provided an assessment of U.S. strategic interests in South Asia.
| 11:45 a.m. | Registration and Luncheon | |
| 12:00 p.m. | Panelists: | Colonel John H. Gill, U.S. Army (retired), National Defense University |
| Feroz Hassan Khan, Naval Postgraduate School | ||
| Henry Sokolski, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center | ||
| Moderator: | Thomas Donnelly, AEI | |
| 2:00 | Adjournment |
American Enterprise Institute
Thomas Donnelly is a resident fellow in defense and security policy studies and the director of the Center for Defense Studies at AEI. He is the coauthor, with Frederick W. Kagan, of Lessons for a Long War: How America Can Win on New Battlefields (AEI Press, 2010) and Ground Truth: The Future of U.S. Land Power (AEI Press, 2008). Among his other books are Of Men and Materiel: The Crisis in Military Resources (AEI Press, 2007), coedited with Gary J. Schmitt; The Military We Need (AEI Press, 2005); and Operation Iraqi Freedom: A Strategic Assessment (AEI Press, 2004). From 1995 to 1999, he was policy group director and a professional staff member for the House Armed Services Committee. Mr. Donnelly also served as a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He is a former editor of Armed Forces Journal, Army Times, and Defense News.
John H. Gill (Colonel, U.S. Army, retired) is an associate professor on the faculty of the Near East-South Asia (NESA) Center. A former South Asia Foreign Area officer in the U.S. Army, he retired as a colonel in 2005 after more than twenty-seven years of service. Prior to joining the NESA Center, he worked on South Asia issues in the Pentagon from 1998 to 2001, including on the 1999 Kargil crisis. During his time at the NESA Center, he has also served as special assistant for India/Pakistan to the Plans and Policy director of the U.S. Joint Staff and as military adviser to Ambassador James Dobbins, the U.S. envoy to the Afghan opposition forces (2001-2002). From August 2003 to January 2004, he served in Islamabad as the liaison officer to the Pakistan Army for U.S. forces in Afghanistan. He has been following South Asia issues from intelligence and policy perspectives since the mid-1980s in positions with the U.S. Joint Staff, the U.S. Pacific Command staff, and the Defense Intelligence Agency. His publications on South Asia include an atlas of the 1971 India-Pakistan War, and subject-specific chapters in the Strategic Asia 2003 and 2005 editions, as well as chapters on U.S.-India military relations and India-Pakistan behavior during the "Brass Tacks" crisis. Mr. Gill is currently working on chapters addressing Indian counterinsurgency experiences in Sri Lanka and military operations during the 1999 Kargil conflict. He is also an internationally recognized military historian and has authored several books and numerous papers on the Napoleonic era.
Feroz Khan (Brigadier General, Pakistan Army, retired) is a visiting professor in the department of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and a senior researcher in the Center for Contemporary Conflict. During his time in the army, he last held the post of director of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs, which is within the Strategic Plans Division, Joint Services Headquarters. General Khan made key contributions in formulating and advocating Pakistan's security policy on nuclear and conventional arms control and strategic stability in South Asia. He produced recommendations for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and represented Pakistan in several multilateral and bilateral arms-control negotiations. He also taught as visiting faculty at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. He has many published articles, book chapters, and papers, and he regularly participates in security-related conferences and seminars. He is currently writing a book on Pakistan's nuclear program and U.S. policy. General Khan has been a visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and he has accepted fellowships at Stanford University's Center for International Studies and Arms Control, the Brookings Institution, the Center for Non-Proliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, and at the Cooperative Monitoring Center in Sandia National Laboratory.
Henry Sokolski is the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. He is also serving as an adjunct professor at the Institute of World Politics, and he has served as a member of the Congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism. Mr. Sokolski previously served as deputy for nonproliferation policy in the Department of Defense, for which he received a medal for outstanding public service from then¬-secretary of defense Richard B. Cheney. He also worked in the secretary of defense's Office of Net Assessment as a consultant to the National Intelligence Council and as a member of the Central Intelligence Agency's Senior Advisory Group. Mr. Sokolski served as a special assistant on nuclear energy matters to Senator Gordon Humphrey (R-N.H.), and as a legislative military aide to then-senator Dan Qualye (R-Ind.). Mr. Sokolski has authored and edited a number of works on proliferation, including Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter (2009); Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom (2008); Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War (2008); Gauging U.S.-Indian Strategic Cooperation (2007); Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran (2005); and Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice (2004), all published by the Strategic Studies Institute, and Best of Intentions: America's Campaign against Strategic Weapons Proliferation (Praeger, 2001).


