1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
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Video of this event will be livestreamed online at http://american.com/archive/2010/september/aei-election-watch-session-iv
Polls indicate that Democrats face very strong political headwinds in the upcoming elections. AEI’s 2010 Election Watch team returns for its fourth session to discuss the political climate today and look ahead to the fall House, Senate, and
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gubernatorial races. AEI’s Michael Barone, Karlyn Bowman, John C. Fortier, Henry Olsen, and Norman J. Ornstein will provide their insights into the most important factors to watch in the countdown to election day. Their analyses will include:
• The results of the primaries;
• Key races to watch;
• What polls reveal about the mood, the parties, and Congress; and
• What various election outcomes will mean for the 112th Congress.
A special edition of the AEI Political Report, a comprehensive collection of polls on the country’s mood, will be released at this event.
| 8:00 a.m. | Registration and Breakfast | |
| 8:30 | Panelists: | Michael Barone, AEI |
| John C. Fortier, AEI | ||
| Henry Olsen, AEI | ||
| Norman J. Ornstein, AEI | ||
| Moderator: | Karlyn Bowman, AEI | |
| 10:00 | Adjournment |
WASHINGTON, SEPTEMBER 16, 2010--AEI senior fellow Karlyn Bowman opened the fourth session of Election Watch with the latest polling numbers and what they reveal about the public mood. Most relevant to the November election, she said, is the recent All State/National Journal poll, showing that 70 percent of respondents know a friend or relative who has lost a job in the past six months. Henry Olsen, director of AEI's National Research Initiative, analyzed the House races. He broke down the open districts into socioeconomic categories, forecasting party chances in each type. AEI resident fellow Michael Barone then discussed the gubernatorial races and the effects they would have on reapportionment after the 2010 census. John C. Fortier, resident fellow at AEI, focused on the Senate, categorizing its elections by races likely to switch, races unlikely to switch, and races on the bubble. AEI resident scholar Norman J. Ornstein rounded out the panel by analyzing the likely effects of the election on both the lame-duck session to follow and the next Congress. He hypothesized that both parties, especially the Republicans, would feel a pull from the extremes.
- "If minority voting is as big in 2008, that could save the Democrats. But that assumes that independents will break as close to Democrats as they did in 2008."
--Henry Olsen, Director, AEI's National Research Initiative - "I think the lesson in these industrial states is that they are not trending Democratic like they did during the Depression. For some reason, they are not doing so and it would behoove both parties to learn why."
--Michael Barone, Resident Fellow, AEI - "In this election, the energy is on the Republican side because of the tea party. . . . This tea party energy and phenomenon may help Republicans in 2010, but one has to think here how it will play out in other elections."
--John C. Fortier, Resident Fellow, AEI
--ANDREW RUGG
Speaker biographies
Michael Barone, a political analyst and journalist and a resident fellow at AEI, studies politics, American government, and campaigns and elections. The principal coauthor of the annual Almanac of American Politics (National Journal Group), he has written many books on American politics and history. Mr. Barone is also a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner.
Karlyn Bowman is a senior fellow at AEI. She compiles and analyzes American public opinion using available polling data on a variety of subjects, including the economy, taxes, the state of workers in America, the environment and global warming, attitudes about homosexuality and gay marriage, the North American Free Trade Agreement and free trade, the war in Iraq, and women's attitudes. In addition, Ms. Bowman has studied and spoken about the evolution of American politics resulting from key demographic and geographic changes. She has often lectured on the role of think tanks in the United States and writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.
John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI. He studies American politics, the presidency, continuity of government, elections, the Electoral College, election reform, and presidential succession and disability. He is the senior counselor to the AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project, executive director of the Continuity of Government Commission, and a fortnightly columnist for Politico. Mr. Fortier’s books include Absentee and Early Voting: Trends, Promises, and Perils (AEI Press, 2006); After the People Vote: A Guide to the Electoral College (3rd ed., AEI Press, 2004); and Second-Term Blues: How George W. Bush Has Governed (Brookings Institution Press, 2007). He is also a frequent radio and television commentator on the presidency, Congress, and elections.
Henry Olsen, a lawyer by training, is the director of AEI's National Research Initiative. In that capacity, he identifies leading academics and public intellectuals who work in an aspect of domestic public policy and recruits them to visit or write for AEI. Mr. Olsen studies and writes about the policy and political implications of long-term trends in social, economic, and political thought.
Norman J. Ornstein is a long-time observer of Congress and politics. He writes a weekly column for Roll Call and is an election analyst for CBS News. He also serves as codirector of the AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project and as a senior counselor to the Continuity of Government Commission. Mr. Ornstein led a working group of scholars and practitioners that helped shape the law known as McCain-Feingold, which reformed the campaign-financing system. He was elected as a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2004. His many books include The Permanent Campaign and Its Future (AEI Press, 2000); the coauthored The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track (Oxford University Press, 2006); and, most recently, Vital Statistics on Congress, 2008 (Brookings Institution Press, 2008), also coauthored.
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