WASHINGTON, OCTOBER 21, 2010--Thursday, AEI's Election Watch team of Michael Barone, Karlyn Bowman, John C. Fortier, Henry Olsen, and Norman J. Ornstein returned to discuss the rapidly approaching midterm elections. Opinions differed on the outcome of the elections. Bowman noted that polls, especially the generic ballot, indicate Republicans will make major gains in Congress. Ornstein agreed that major changes are on the way but said it is still unclear exactly how big a storm will hit Democrats on November 2. Various indicators paint different pictures, he said, with national polls showing dramatic gains for the GOP and local polls revealing a more mixed scenario. Fortier cautioned against reading too much into the early-voting figures and the tightening of local polls. Speaking about governors, Barone suggested there would be major GOP gains in the industrial heartland, noting that voters there are bucking the historical pattern of turning to Democrats in difficult economic times. Olsen, speaking about the House, said he felt comfortable with the upper end of projections for GOP gains. Ornstein and Barone also discussed the possibility of a compromise candidate for Speaker of the House--potentially a Blue Dog Democrat--if Democrats barely hang on.

• "In a new ABC poll, people were asked whether they would like their son or daughter to grow up to be a candidate for Congress. A quarter said they would, but seven in ten said they would not, that they would prefer him or her to choose another line of work. . . . If you ask a different kind of question--could your son or daughter grow up to be president?--Americans say of course their son or daughter could. But politics is just not something that people would choose for their children. "
  --Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow, AEI
  
  
• "The most interesting result would be Democratic euphoria if they just barely escape the bullet and only lose, let's say, thirty-six seats in the house. They will wake up the next morning trying to figure out how much triage they have to do to keep some of their Blue Dogs from going over the side, but following that there would be an attempt to get a hybrid speaker, a Blue Dog that Republicans would support. This would prevent Nancy Pelosi from getting back [into] the Speakership."
  --Norman J. Ornstein, Resident Scholar, AEI
  
  
• "There is a lot of early voting, as there has been in the last several elections . . . but it is very hard to know what the early results from it mean because the parties can have different turnout strategies in different places. In some states, one party will emphasize early voting, either voting by mail or voting early in person. They will motivate their troops to get out very early. The other side's turnout strategy may be to get their people to the polls a week before or on Election Day." So it is hard to know what the early numbers mean."
  --John C. Fortier, Resident Fellow, AEI
  
  
• "Postwar political scientists developed a rule that in times of economic distress, the industrial heartland turns to Democrats because voters want more government spending to help them and their communities out in a recession. That rule tended to apply in 1958, 1970, and 1982. To me, it looks like it's time for a new rule. In this time of economic distress, voters are turning to Republicans in the industrial heartland."
  --Michael Barone, Resident Fellow, AEI
  
  
• "I have a rather large range of fifty-two to seventy-two House seats [for the Republicans]. . . . Why do I have such large numbers? The generic ballot tends to understate Republican strength. In virtually all of the final polls in the last twenty years, it's underestimated the actual Republican performance on the margin."
  --Henry Olsen, Director, AEI's National Research Initiative
  

--ANDREW RUGG

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