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As the G-20 members gather on November 11-12, there are clear signs that economic and financial multilateralism is in trouble. Although it is likely that the G-20 leaders will avoid testy confrontations, there is little agreement--much less consensus--on common
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policies and solutions to the challenges of rebalancing the global economy, currency valuation, climate change, and bringing the World Trade Organization Doha Round to a successful conclusion. At this event, International Monetary Fund executive board member Arrigo Sadun and AEI economists Desmond Lachman, Philip I. Levy, and John H. Makin will analyze competing national goals and the future of the G-20. AEI's Claude Barfield will moderate the event.
8:45 a.m.
Registration
9:00
Panelists:
DESMOND LACHMAN, AEI
PHILIP I. LEVY, AEI
JOHN H. MAKIN, AEI
ARRIGO SADUN, International Monetary Fund
Moderator:
CLAUDE BARFIELD, AEI
11:00
Adjournment
WASHINGTON, NOVEMBER 10, 2010--Not much can be expected from this week's G20 summit in South Korea, panelists concluded Wednesday at an American Enterprise Institute event. Philip I. Levy, evaluating the G20's record, noted that the group is not effective at convincing anyone to sacrifice for the international good. He said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's proposal to cap current account surpluses is exactly the sort of issue the G20 should discuss. China and Germany, however, have already dismissed the idea. Arrigo Sadun discussed the "law of diminishing cooperation"--that is, countries came together during the height of the financial crisis, but with no real urgency now, he expects minimal cooperation from world powers. From a European perspective, Sadun said, a modest level of progress in international cooperation would be viewed as a success, even if nothing concrete emerges from the meetings. John Makin said G20 summits tend to be more about politics than economics. Makin compared the current state of the U.S. economy to that in 1981, when deflation was at 14 percent and rising. Today, with inflation at just 0.8 percent, deflation is the bigger threat. Desmond Lachman concluded with fears that most countries incorrectly believe the financial crisis is behind us. He expects almost nothing to come from the G20 summit and suggested that a smaller G4 should be assembled, with the United States, China, Japan, and Germany working together to address international economic issues.
--JACK BANNISTER
Philip I. Levy studies international trade and development at AEI. Before joining AEI, he handled international economic issues as a member of the secretary of state’s policy planning staff, was senior economist for trade on the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, and was a faculty member in Yale University’s department of economics. An economist by training, he has experience in many international trade and development policy issues, including free trade agreements, trade with China, antidumping policy, welfare effects of globalization, U.S. foreign-assistance policy, and economic development policy.
Arrigo Sadun is an executive director at the International Monetary Fund. In this capacity, he represents Italy, Albania, Greece, Malta, Portugal, San Marino, and Timor-Leste. Previously, Mr. Sadun was the director of the economic financial analysts at the Italian Treasury and the founder and president of Business Information Group. He is the author of several publications on macroeconomics, monetary issues, and development issues.
John H. Makin is a resident scholar at AEI and a principal at Caxton Associates. Mr. Makin has been an adviser to numerous U.S. government agencies, the Federal Reserve System, and the Bank of Japan. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Economic Club of New York. Mr. Makin joined AEI in 1984 after a distinguished career in academic research. He is the author of numerous books and articles on financial, monetary, and fiscal policy, and he writes AEI’s monthly Economic Outlook.
Desmond Lachman joined AEI as a resident fellow after serving as a managing director and chief emerging-market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. Previously, he was deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s Policy and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of the organization’s policies toward emerging markets. Mr. Lachman has written on topics such as economic policy, fund arrangements, monetary reform, import restrictions, and exchange rates. At AEI, he studies major emerging-market economies and the role of multilateral lending institutions.
