Bubble Trouble: Beginning of the End?
Video
About This Event

Post-Event Summary

Six years into the three-part bust of the mid-2000s, both residential and commercial real estate prices have yet to recover. With substantial icebergs still floating in financial waters, policy experts converged at AEI on Thursday to discuss the outlook of the post-bubble world. AEI’s Desmond Lachman discussed the prospects for the future of the eurozone and stressed the reinforcing, self-destructive nature of the liquidity and funding problems facing the European region. Thomas Zimmerman of United Bank of Switzerland Investment Bank pointed out that while U.S. households were deleveraging, substantial imbalances in the U.S. economy persisted, which will take years to sort out. National Mortgage News’s Mark Fogarty followed up by describing the factors that caused mortgage underwriters to leave the market and led to rises in mortgage foreclosure rates. Chris Whalen from Target Capital Partners then discussed the legal and financial framework behind the shrinking consumer credit sector, and indicated that current policy would do little to stop the sector from shrinking. AEI’s John Makin recapped the last six years of policy blunders that have exacerbated the cleanup from the bubble, and painted a moderated picture of the year ahead as countercyclical stimulus measures are unwound.

---Daniel Hanson

Event Desciption

That we are still living in the wake of the U.S. housing bubble is a dominant financial and economic fact of 2012. But is the end really approaching at long last? The housing bubble was accompanied by one in commercial real estate, making it a double bubble. To further complicate matters,  the European sovereign debt bubble has given the 21st century a complex, international bubble cubed. It’s been one disaster after another, leading us to wonder, what’s next? Should we expect a bottoming of the financial recession, a sideways movement, a recovery or a continued onslaught of problems? Our panel of experts will share their thoughts.

 

Agenda

1:45 PM
Registration

2:00 PM
Panelists:
MARK FOGARTY, National Mortgage News
DESMOND LACHMAN, AEI
JOHN H. MAKIN, AEI
CHRIS WHALEN, Tangent Capital Partners
THOMAS ZIMMERMAN, UBS Investment Bank

Moderator:
ALEX J. POLLOCK, AEI

4:00 PM
Adjournment

Event Contact Information

For more information, please contact Steffanie Hawkins at steffanie.hawkins@aei.org or 202.419.5212.

Media Contact Information

For media inquiries, please contact Véronique Rodman at vrodman@aei.org, 202.862.4871.

Speaker Biographies

Mark Fogarty is the editorial director of the Mortgage Group at SourceMedia in New York. He oversees all of the company's mortgage publications and websites, including National Mortgage News, Origination News, Mortgage Servicing News and Mortgage Technology. He also chairs SourceMedia's mortgage-related conferences. He has worked with the publication for 27 years. Before that, he worked at the Jersey Journal (Jersey City, NJ) and the South Bergenite (Rutherford, NJ).

Desmond Lachman joined AEI as a resident fellow after serving as a managing director and chief emerging-market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. He was previously deputy director in the International Monetary Fund's Policy and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of the organization’s policies toward emerging markets. Mr. Lachman has written on topics such as economic policy, fund arrangements, monetary reform, import restrictions and exchange rates. At AEI, he studies major emerging-market economies and the role of multilateral lending institutions.

John H. Makin is a resident scholar at AEI and a principal at Caxton Associates. Mr. Makin has been an advisor to numerous U.S. government agencies, the Federal Reserve System and the Bank of Japan. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Economic Club of New York. Mr. Makin joined AEI in 1984 after a distinguished career in academic research. He is the author of numerous books and articles on financial, monetary and fiscal policy, and he writes AEI's monthly Economic Outlook.

Alex J. Pollock is a resident fellow at AEI focusing on financial policy issues, including housing finance, government-sponsored enterprises, retirement finance, corporate governance, accounting standards and the banking system. Before joining AEI, he spent 35 years in banking, including 12 years as president and CEO of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago. He is the author of numerous articles on financial systems and the organizer of the Deflating Bubble series of AEI conferences. In 2007, he developed a one-page mortgage form to help borrowers understand their mortgage obligations. He is a director of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Great Lakes Higher Education Corporation and the International Union for Housing Finance, and the chairman of the board of the Great Books Foundation.

Chris Whalen is senior managing director of Tangent Capital Partners in New York, where he works as an investment banker providing advisory services to companies in the financial services sector. He is the co-founder and vice chairman of the board of Lord, Whalen LLC, the parent company of Institutional Risk Analytics. Mr. Whalen currently edits The Institutional Risk Analyst, a weekly news report and commentary on significant developments in and around the global financial markets. Mr. Whalen is a fellow of the Networks Financial Institute at Indiana State University. He is also a member of Professional Risk Managers’ International Association (PRMIA).  He was regional director of PRMIA’s Washington, D.C. chapter from 2006 to 2010.  He is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the Global Interdependence Center in Philadelphia. He is also is the author of the December 2010 book, “Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream.”

Thomas Zimmerman is a managing director at United Bank of Switzerland Investment Bank (UBS). He has been involved in managing the firm's research efforts on asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities for the past 11 years. Before joining UBS, Mr. Zimmerman managed the research groups on asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities at Prudential Securities and Chemical Bank. He started his research career as a vice president in the mortgage research department at Salomon Brothers. His research has appeared in numerous fixed-income publications and industry reference works, and he was a member of the UBS research team that consistently ranked first in the annual Institutional Investor survey of fixed-income analysts.

Also Visit
AEIdeas Blog The American Magazine

What's new on AEI

image The Census Bureau and Obamacare: Dumb decision? Yes. Conspiracy? No.
image A 'three-state solution' for Middle East peace
image Give the CBO long-range tools
image The coming collapse of India's communists
AEI Participants

 

Desmond
Lachman
  • Desmond Lachman joined AEI after serving as a managing director and chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. He previously served as deputy director in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of IMF policies. Mr. Lachman has written extensively on the global economic crisis, the U.S. housing market bust, the U.S. dollar, and the strains in the euro area. At AEI, Mr. Lachman is focused on the global macroeconomy, global currency issues, and the multilateral lending agencies.
  • Phone: 202-862-5844
    Email: dlachman@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emma Bennett
    Phone: 202.862.5862
    Email: emma.bennett@aei.org

 

John H.
Makin
  • John H. Makin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) where he studies the US economy, monetary policy, financial markets, corporate taxation and banking. He also studies and writes frequently about Japanese, Chinese and European economic issues.

    Makin has served as a consultant to the US Treasury Department, the Congressional Budget Office, and the International Monetary Fund. He spent twenty years on Wall Street as the chief economist, and later as a principal of Caxton Associates a trading and investment firm. Earlier, Makin taught economics at various universities including the University of Virginia. He has also been a scholar at the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Federal Bank of Chicago, and the National Bureau of Economic Research. A prolific writer, Makin is the author of numerous books and articles on financial, monetary, and fiscal policy. Makin also writes AEI's monthly Economic Outlook which pairs insightful research with current economic topics.

    Makin received his doctorate and master’s degree in economics from University of Chicago, and bachelor’s degree in economics from Trinity College.


    Follow John Makin on Twitter.

  • Phone: 202-862-5828
    Email: jmakin@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Brittany Pineros
    Phone: 202-862-5926
    Email: brittany.pineros@aei.org

 

Alex J.
Pollock
  • Alex J. Pollock is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he studies and writes about housing finance; government-sponsored enterprises, including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks; retirement finance; and banking and central banks. He also works on corporate governance and accounting standards issues.


    Pollock has had a 35-year career in banking and was president and CEO of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago for more than 12 years immediately before joining AEI. A prolific writer, he has written numerous articles on financial systems and is the author of the book “Boom and Bust: Financial Cycles and Human Prosperity” (AEI Press, 2011). He has also created a one-page mortgage form to help borrowers understand their mortgage obligations.


    The lead director of CME Group, Pollock is also a director of the Great Lakes Higher Education Corporation and the chairman of the board of the Great Books Foundation. He is a past president of the International Union for Housing Finance.


    He has an M.P.A. in international relations from Princeton University, an M.A. in philosophy from the University of Chicago, and a B.A. from Williams College.


  • Phone: 202.862.7190
    Email: apollock@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emily Rapp
    Phone: (202) 419-5212
    Email: emily.rapp@aei.org
AEI on Facebook