A Guide for Deficit Reduction in the United States Based on Historical Consolidations That Worked
Kevin A. Hassett, Andrew G. Biggs, Matthew H. Jensen | AEI Online
December 27, 2010
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Abstract

Most developed countries face the need for significant policy changes to balance their budgets over the long run. Yet there is significant disagreement in the literature concerning the identification and impact of successful fiscal consolidations. In this paper, we explore the impact that differing assumptions and methodologies have on conclusions, and derive bounds across specifications that can be used by policymakers in designing their own reforms. Using cyclically adjusted panel data for select OECD countries from 1970-2007, we explore how the compositions of successful and unsuccessful consolidations differ for varying definitions of success. While conclusions about the growth impact of reforms vary depending on methodology, we find that there is much less disagreement concerning composition. Specifically, we find strong evidence that expenditure cuts outweigh revenue increases in successful consolidations. We also find evidence that the type of the spending cuts is an important determinant of success, as is the type of tax increases. We use these results as a guide, and discuss specific proposals for reducing the United States' deficit that draw on the lessons from past consolidations.

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Andrew G. Biggs is a resident scholar at AEI. Kevin A. Hassett is a senior fellow and the director of economic policy studies at AEI. Matthew Jensen is a research assistant at AEI.

About the Author

 

Kevin A.
Hassett
  • Before joining AEI, Mr. Hassett was a senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor of economics and finance at the Graduate School of Business of Columbia University, as well as a policy consultant to the Treasury Department during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations. He served as an economic adviser to the George W. Bush 2004 presidential campaign and as Senator John McCain's chief economic adviser during the 2000 presidential primaries. He also served as a senior economic adviser to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign. Mr. Hassett is a columnist for National Review.

  • Phone: 202-862-7157
    Email: khassett@aei.org

  • Assistant Info

    Name: Veronika Polakova
    Phone: 202-862-4880
    Email: veronika.polakova@aei.org
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Andrew G.
Biggs
  • Andrew G. Biggs is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC. Prior to joining AEI he was the principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration (SSA), where he oversaw SSA's policy research efforts and led the agency's participation in the Social Security Trustees working group. In 2005 he worked on Social Security reform at the National Economic Council and in 2001 was on the staff of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security. Andrew’s work at AEI focuses on Social Security reform, state and local government pensions, and comparisons of public and private sector compensation. His work has appeared in academic publications as well as outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and Washington Post, and he has testified before Congress on numerous occasions. He holds a Bachelors degree from the Queen's University of Belfast, Masters degrees from Cambridge University and the University of London and a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics.
  • Phone: 202-862-5841
    Email: andrew.biggs@aei.org

  • Assistant Info

    Name: Rohan Poojara
    Phone: 202-862-5852
    Email: rohan.poojara@aei.org
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Matthew H.
Jensen
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