In 2011, the Government Mortgage Complex accounted for 88 percent of all first-mortgage originations in the United States, with the government also controlling an estimated 90 percent of the student loan market. The government’s growing dominance in the home mortgage and student loan categories is cause for concern, posing a threat to private investors, borrowers, and taxpayers.

In the latest Financial Services Outlook, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) housing experts Peter Wallison and Edward Pinto explain how decades of government intervention have gravely harmed America's housing market.

In less than twenty-five years, government “affordable housing” and other housing policies have turned a healthy market into a financial ruin. Until Fannie and Freddie’s market dominance and the government’s role in the housing finance system are substantially reduced or eliminated, the United States will continue to have an inferior and unstable housing market.

As policymakers continue their efforts to reduce the government’s role in the currently nationalized housing market, the broadly available and deep subsidies provided to the five divisions of the Government Mortgage Complex continue to distort the marketplace and thwart these efforts.

Few recognize just how troubled this government agency really is. When measured against the accounting system used by private mortgage insurers, the FHA is deeply insolvent, with a capital shortfall of tens of billions of dollars. If it were a private firm, state regulators would immediately shut it down. 

Twelve years into the 21st century, the dominant financial and economic fact is that we are still living in the wake of athe vast housing and mortgage bubble, which peaked in mid-2006, almost six years ago.  

As the housing market struggles to keep pace with economic recovery elsewhere, homeowners would love to have a crystal ball.  Absent that, however, they have AEI resident fellow Edward Pinto, one of seven panelists to be awarded with Zillow and Pulsenomics' Crystal Ball Award.

Reform focused on sustainable lending would have FHA target a projected average claim rate of 5 per 100 insured loans under normal circumstances and 10 per 100 insured loans under stress circumstances.  This rate is about five times the normal default level for prime loans and about half the FHA's traditional default level under normal circumstances.

The federal government has taken over large swaths of consumer lending, most notably the $10 trillion home mortgage and $1 trillion student lending markets. The government's share of new loans for each now approaches 100%.Government monopolies in financial services pose risks to taxpayers as well as borrowers