John C. Fortier and Norman J. Ornstein

On December 13, AEI's political team kicked off its fourteenth biennial Election Watch season. The program, which was launched in 1982 by Karlyn Bowman and Norman J. Ornstein, is the longest-running political briefing in Washington. At the session, which was moderated by James K. Glassman and broadcast on C-SPAN, Bowman discussed the electorate's mood, noting current Republican and Democratic differences in priorities for the country. She also reviewed polls on the electorate's partisan identification. "In 2004," she said, "Republicans and Democrats were at absolute parity in Gallup's polls." But today, the Democrats have a "significant advantage" on this key indicator. Bowman also discussed the difficulties of polling in the early caucus and primary states.

Ornstein examined the Democratic race and described different possible outcomes in the fast-moving contest. "The climate strongly favors Democrats . . . on almost every issue of consequence," he said. Among the dynamics unique to 2008 are a "significantly earlier starting date" and a highly compressed primary calendar. Ornstein also cautioned that the situation may change rapidly: "It is usually the case that the zeitgeist changes in the month or so before the voting begins."

Michael Barone, the principal author of the authoritative Almanac of American Politics, assessed the Republican candidates. "If I see three possible scenarios on the Democratic side," he said, "I see sixty scenarios on the Republican side." Another dynamic is that, unlike in 2004, there is less volunteering and voter contact on the GOP side than on the Democrats'. He also commented on the possibility of a brokered convention, which he views as unlikely even in the case of deadlock because of the dramatic societal and technological changes since the era of the contested conventions.

Batting cleanup was John C. Fortier, who offered a preview of Senate and House races. He predicted that the Democrats would make gains in both houses in 2008. "The Senate landscape dramatically favors Democrats," he said. "They have almost all of the opportunities for pickups. The House is more of a mixed bag with Republicans poised to knock off a few freshmen that the 2006 Democratic tide swept in, while Democrats have real shots in open seats and against a few vulnerable incumbents."

For a video of this event, visit www.aei.org/event1613/. For information about the Election Watch series, visit www.aei.org/electionwatch/.