Stephen D. Oliner is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and a senior fellow at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Ziman Center for Real Estate.
Oliner joined AEI after spending more than 25 years at the Federal Reserve Board. An economist by training, Oliner held a number of high-level positions at the Fed and was closely involved in the Fed's analysis of the US economy and financial markets. Since leaving the Fed, Oliner has become well known for his analysis of US monetary policy and has maintained an active research agenda that focuses on real estate issues and the US economy’s growth potential. He is coprincipal developer of the AEI Pinto-Oliner Mortgage Risk, Collateral Risk, and Capital Adequacy Indexes.
Oliner has a Ph.D. and an M.S. in economics from the University of Wisconsin. He received a B.A. in economics from the University of Virginia.
Senior Fellow, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate, 2011–present
Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast, 2012
Senior Adviser, 2006–11; Associate Director, 2000–06; Assistant Director, 1997–2000, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Chief, Capital Markets Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1994–97
Senior Economist, 1989–94; Economist, 1984–89, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Ph.D., economics, University of Wisconsin M.S., economics, University of Wisconsin B.A., economics, University of Virginia
We invite you to join us for this year’s international conference on housing risk — cosponsored by the Collateral Risk Network and AEI International Center on Housing Risk — which will focus on new mortgage and collateral risk measures and their applications.
At the core of the US financial collapse was the lack of an objective standard of safety and soundness in mortgage underwriting and collateral risk assessment. Opaque information regarding these risks meant that homebuyers, lenders, investors, insurers, regulators, and policymakers had neither incentives nor information to moderate the bubble.
Monthly condensed analyses of crucial real estate and economic issues offered by the UCLA Anderson Forecast and UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate. Here, Stephen Oliner, senior fellow, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate, discusses the Fed’s interest-rate policy under Chair Janet Yellen.
The recent slowdown in the rate of decline for semiconductor prices suggested by the PPI is puzzling in light of evidence that the performance of MPUs has continued to improve at a rapid pace. The authors argue that hedonic indexes provide a more accurate measure of price changes.
Our data show that land prices were more volatile than house prices during the recent boom/bust cycle. In areas where land was inexpensive in 2000, the land share of property value jumped during the boom, and this rise in the landshare was a useful predictor of the subsequent crash in house prices. These results highlight the value of focusing on land for assessing house-price risk.
It would be shocking if the Fed were to change monetary policy in any notable way at the FOMC meeting that concludes today. One reason is simply that Fed Chair Yellen does not have a press conference after this meeting.