There are five broad trends leading to greater instability in the South China Sea in the coming years. These are the failure of UNCLOS--or the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea--a weakening of ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), China's evolving South China Sea policy, Southeast Asian military modernization, and a hollowing out of the U.S. military.

The US and Japan, as the world's biggest economies, have a strong interest in setting the pace for global standards in any regional consolidation.

The stability of the next decade may depend on Chinese leaders focusing on avoiding a scenario where China is left with just two choices: retreat, which would unleash nationalist fury inside the country, or chance an outright clash.

Two questions face a Washington focused on cutting budgets and stressed after a decade of combat in the Middle East. First, do we have the will to succeed in the Indo-Pacific? And second, do we have the means to continue to lead?

What is missing from Obama's trip is the big picture of both Asia's future and America's role in it.

The U.S./Korea FTA has triggered a tectonic shift in regional trade relations and in future potential institutional frameworks.

Statement No. 1

Taipei, July 12, 2004

Regional financial integration is seen as an important way to promote an efficient allocation of resources supportive of economic development and financial stability in a region. The creation of a regional bond market became a popular subject of discussion among financial...

America is at a crossroads in deciding how it will play its role as the guarantor of stability in the Asia-Pacific region.