In 2011, the Government Mortgage Complex accounted for 88 percent of all first-mortgage originations in the United States, with the government also controlling an estimated 90 percent of the student loan market. The government’s growing dominance in the home mortgage and student loan categories is cause for concern, posing a threat to private investors, borrowers, and taxpayers.

As policymakers continue their efforts to reduce the government’s role in the currently nationalized housing market, the broadly available and deep subsidies provided to the five divisions of the Government Mortgage Complex continue to distort the marketplace and thwart these efforts.

Few recognize just how troubled this government agency really is. When measured against the accounting system used by private mortgage insurers, the FHA is deeply insolvent, with a capital shortfall of tens of billions of dollars. If it were a private firm, state regulators would immediately shut it down. 

Reform focused on sustainable lending would have FHA target a projected average claim rate of 5 per 100 insured loans under normal circumstances and 10 per 100 insured loans under stress circumstances.  This rate is about five times the normal default level for prime loans and about half the FHA's traditional default level under normal circumstances.

Though its capital position improved slightly over last month, the FHA is still firmly in the red, with a current net worth of –$13.45 billion. Particularly alarming is the growth of the Ginnie/USDA division, which has a higher default rate than the FHA.

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) uses lax accounting standards that obscure the fact that it is deeply insolvent, with a looming shortfall of tens of billions of dollars that American taxpayers will have to make up.

FHA Watch, now in its second issue, focuses on the government’s taxpayer-backed Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage guarantee program, the risks it poses for taxpayers, families and communities, and the opportunities for reform that lead to sustainable homeownership and a fiscally sound FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR), which pushed Congress to give FHA yet more responsibilities, is now trying to show that the agency is not really insolvent. But the slippery "facts" they are using show how tenuous their argument is.