Tensions in the South China Sea have been on the rise following a number of incidents at sea and tough rhetoric among the claimants to the sea's waters and islands.

Only by continuing to act on the high seas as it always has can the United States hope to maintain a system of international rules that serves its own interests. Ratifying UNCLOS could very well have the opposite effect.

While strong support for South Korea following the tragic murder by North Korea of 46 sailors is welcome news, an unnecessary concession to China is less promising.

The stability of the next decade may depend on Chinese leaders focusing on avoiding a scenario where China is left with just two choices: retreat, which would unleash nationalist fury inside the country, or chance an outright clash.

The Laffer Curve—the conceptual device illustrating how high marginal tax rates reduced revenue and economic growth—helped revolutionize tax policy around the world thirty five years ago. Today we need a new Laffer Curve—for regulation.  

Unless the United States is prepared to reverse the trend, we must face the fact that China will rule the skies over the Pacific--just as it is also poised to rule its waves at sea.

America is at a crossroads in deciding how it will play its role as the guarantor of stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

There are five broad trends leading to greater instability in the South China Sea in the coming years. These are the failure of UNCLOS--or the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea--a weakening of ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), China's evolving South China Sea policy, Southeast Asian military modernization, and a hollowing out of the U.S. military.