Just as the political air is filled with talk of the inevitability of Barack Obama's re-election -- we are told that the kids at his Chicago headquarters are brimming with confidence -- in come some poll numbers showing him behind.

Last week I wrote about the standings in the presidential race and said it looked like a long, hard slog through about a dozen clearly identified target states, much like the contests in 2000 and 2004. Call it the 2000/2004 long, hard slog scenario.

One approach for Mitt Romney would be what opponents might call a double-vanilla ticket, with another white male as vice presidential nominee. Four possibilities come to mind.

The crowd at the Fox News/Wall Street Journal debate in Myrtle Beach was feisty, with whoops and cheers for Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry, though not so much for Ron Paul. 

Conventional wisdom suggests that a presidential candidate will receive a small boost following his party's national convention.

Obama's comment reminds general election voters, most of whom dislike his current major policies, that he might go even further "after my election."

Why Iowa? Nothing in the Constitution says that Iowa gets to vote for president before any other state. It just does.

At last, after pundits, pollsters and politicians have filled the media for months with their wisdom, tomorrow in Iowa, actual American voters begin actual voting in an actual caucus. Be prepared to be surprised.