The United States may not have laid the foundation for sustained expansion, with real per-capita output still 2.2 percent below its 2006 level. The chance that the economy slips into another recession within a year is about four in ten.

Two rounds of fiscal stimulus have produced neither a sustained rise in growth nor a sustained drop in the unemployment rate. Another round would merely increase deficits and debt levels.

The loss of global economic momentum spells trouble for the second half of 2011.

Hope that the global economy has shaken off the dust of the 2007-2008 financial crisis is giving way to uncertainty as the Arab Spring and disaster in Japan threaten to reverse recovery momentum.

A full-fledged international role for the yuan, as a store of value as well as a medium of exchange and unit of account, is highly unlikely in the near term.

Policymakers can arrest the slow death of the US economy by cutting federal spending, lowering tax rates, stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio, and avoiding deflation.

Stimulus measures may boost the economy enough to provide liftoff, but if they fail to produce lasting growth, 2012 could be painful.

Deficit-reduction measures in the new Congress and pressure to scale back the second round of quantitative easing could stunt U.S. economic growth and further dampen the global recovery.