There are five broad trends leading to greater instability in the South China Sea in the coming years. These are the failure of UNCLOS--or the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea--a weakening of ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), China's evolving South China Sea policy, Southeast Asian military modernization, and a hollowing out of the U.S. military.

No matter how serious America is, how many talks it joins in Beijing, or how many inducements it is willing to offer to the DPRK, Kim Jong-Il will not rid himself of his weapons.