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The decade of relative prosperity prior to the fall was importantly fueled by an expansion in credit and rising leverage that spans about 10 years; it is followed by a lengthy period of retrenchment that most often only begins after the crisis and lasts almost as long as the credit surge.
Accumulated student loan debt now totals $1 trillion. The Super Committee should fix the student loan program by requiring evidence of ability to repay guaranteed loans.
As fiscal stimulus packages unwind, fiscal drag may rise in the United States to a level equivalent to about 1.5 percentage points of GDP early in 2012.
Vincent R. Reinhart suggests the Fed promise to purchase government and mortgage-related securities in order to bolster the confidence of household and investors, and, in effect, encourage spending.
Market participants do not appreciate the changes made by the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve does not like applying difficult lessons from textbooks.
Optimism that the dust has begun to settle on the financial crisis may be premature.
The Federal Reserve's tentativeness about a new round of quantitative easing is regrettable since monetary policy is now the only game in town.
The United States may not have laid the foundation for sustained expansion, with real per-capita output still 2.2 percent below its 2006 level. The chance that the economy slips into another recession within a year is about four in ten.






