There are five broad trends leading to greater instability in the South China Sea in the coming years. These are the failure of UNCLOS--or the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea--a weakening of ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), China's evolving South China Sea policy, Southeast Asian military modernization, and a hollowing out of the U.S. military.

Manila may be turning from Washington to Beijing as its primary economic and security partner in the Asian-Pacific region.

The Chinese grand strategy to emergeover time as the dominant power in Asiainvolves three elements: comprehensive national power, reassuring the region, and displacing the U.S.

The United States must make it a priority to prevent China from destroying American bilateral alliances.

The Clinton administration's policy of "constructive engagement" with China assumes that the People's Republic seeks peace and free trade, but much evidence suggests that China has more threatening ambitions.