Now that it seems a certainty that Russia is headed for (at least) 12 more years of Putinism, alarm bells ought to be sounding. Why? Because by every indicator--macroeconomic, political, social--the system that Putin forged in the early 2000s is all but exhausted and is driving the country toward a dead end.

The Kremlin's involvement in Libya is nothing more than hollow swaggering. If the Obama administration is seriously relying on the Kremlin's "good offices" to help secure a favorable outcome, then its lack of strategy in Libya is clearer than ever.

Though no longer a Cold War rival, Russia continues to pose immense challenges for the United States. The Kremlin’s perception of Russia as an “independent pole in a multi-polar world” often results in Russian policies that place the country at odds with the West. Russia’s current political elites are determined to prevent—and in some cases roll back—color revolutions in the former Soviet Union. They fear that successful democratization on Russia’s periphery will rouse similar demands at home. Regardless, the Kremlin’s ineffective authoritarian governance has stimulated a wave of large-scale protests in recent months that likely mark the beginning of Russia’s transition away from the Vladimir Putin era.

Khodorkovsky's fate is almost certainly being decided not in Judge Danilkin's chambers, but in the Kremlin by two people: Vladimir Putin and his protégé, the haltingly liberal president, Dmitri Medvedev.

While there was plenty of empathy with Egyptians, there were no mass protests. Instead, Russian disquiet has assumed other, less hopeful forms.

Washington has offered to sacrifice a pawn for the queen.

Circumstances in Russia point to the gradual erosion of legitimacy and political institutions--or a sudden collapse of the regime, like the recent Egyptian antiauthoritarian revolt.

Protests that have swept the country in the past few months point to a growing dissatisfaction with the Kremlin's policies; as the only viable political challenge to the Putin-Medvedev Kremlin, they bear careful watching.