Just as the political air is filled with talk of the inevitability of Barack Obama's re-election -- we are told that the kids at his Chicago headquarters are brimming with confidence -- in come some poll numbers showing him behind.

When he took office in 2009, Obama’s job approval rating with women had reached 70 percent; today it has slipped to 49 percent — a precipitous decline of 21 points. This is why the president has been working overtime to court the women’s vote. But here’s the interesting thing: It’s not working.

There’s good reason to believe the relationship between Romney and the Tea Party-driven congressional Republicans will be exceptional only in the severity of its uneasiness. This is not an example of passionate matrimony, but a mere wedding of convenience—and it’s safe to say the honeymoon won’t last long.

What can we learn from last week's House vote on the tax deal? Politicos calculate that important elements of both party bases are unhappy with the compromise, but that the vast American middle wants it.

Gingrich is plainly the best Annoy the Media candidate. But it’s not at all clear, however much South Carolina Republicans would like to think so, that he’s the most electable.

Pundits have lately been comparing Barack Obama to Jimmy Carter, suggesting he is a likely loser in 2012. It's always helpful to be reminded that early polls may not be predictive and that opinion can change, as was the case when Truman won in 1948 and when Carter lost in 1980. But we should also keep in mind that today's polls are better and more frequent than they were 63 years ago.

Boehner will get another swing at the ball in the debt-limit fight. He will enter those negotiations with his base, and his caucus, watching him with wary eyes. They know that he has much greater leverage in this fight — and will be expecting much bigger results.

John Boehner and Eric Cantor want to see Congress approve or disapprove major agency resolutions. Democrats will offer a grab bag of excuses for why this should not be done.