Conditions in Yemen have changed with the onset of the Arab Spring. Political unrest has created openings for the country’s established opposition movements – including al Qaeda – to maneuver for power. Whether the Arab Spring has brought real regime change in Yemen is unclear. While the international community awaits a fully functional government in the capital of Sana’a, al Qaeda may continue to expand its safe haven in the south.

The news that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula nearly blew up a US aircraft last week is a reminder of its continuing strength.

Yemenis voted on Tuesday February 21st, and after thirty-three years of authoritarian rule, Ali Abdullah Saleh was replaced as head of state by current Vice President Abdurabu Mansur Hadi. It remains to be seen whether the winner of this one-man contest will cooperate with the United States on counter-terrorism.

The new government in Yemen has extracted several of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s cronies from the country’s power structure, including demotion of Saleh’s half-brother Mohammed al Ahmar and nephew Tareq Mohammed Saleh, the former heads of the Air Force and Presidential Guard, respectively.

American assistance programs aimed at helping Yemen build and maintain counterterrorism forces will not suffice in the face of a real and growing al Qaeda-affiliated insurgency.

Yemen’s unrest has not ended with the ouster of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Yemeni Revolution instead has entered a new phase, the “Parallel Revolution.”

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has expanded its areas of control in Yemen. The Critical Threats Project has mapped out the locations of AQAP attacks between 2007 and 2011 to reveal this trend.