Harmonisation lifts systemic risk

Article Highlights

  • In a banking industry, as in an investment portfolio, risk is reduced by uncorrelated diversification.

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  • The effect of regulation is always to impose homogeneity of models on what should otherwise be diversified.

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  • As Rod Price stated "Any model adopted by a regulator and applied across a market will fail."

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Sir, Rod Price’s letter (February 20) is subtle and profound. Bravo for its discussion of the recursive and self-falsifying properties of the use of financial models. This insight is especially acute: “Any model adopted by a regulator and applied across a market will always fail.”

We should expand this insight to the broader sense of “model”: not only mathematical models, but also business models, organisational models, conceptual models, capital adequacy models. In a banking industry, as in an investment portfolio, risk is reduced by uncorrelated diversification. But the effect of regulation is always to impose homogeneity of models, in both the broad and narrow senses, on what otherwise would be diversified. Regulation in this regard always increases systemic risk. If regulation across countries is made homogeneous by international “harmonisation” (an instructive example was the use of credit rating agencies’ ratings), the global systemic risk is correspondingly increased still further.

Alex J. Pollock, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute, Washington DC, US

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About the Author

 

Alex J.
Pollock
  • Alex Pollock joined AEI in 2004 after thirty-five years in banking. He was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago from 1991 to 2004. He is the author of numerous articles on financial systems and the organizer of the “Deflating Bubble” series of AEI conferences. In 2007, he developed a one-page mortgage form to help borrowers understand their mortgage obligations. At AEI, he focuses on financial policy issues, including housing finance, government-sponsored enterprises, retirement finance, corporate governance, accounting standards, and the banking system. He is the lead director of CME Group, a director of Great Lakes Higher Education Corporation and the International Union for Housing Finance, and chairman of the board of the Great Books Foundation.

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