Comments on 'Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity: Fact or Fiction?' by Senay Agca and Abon Mozumdar

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Article Highlights

  • .@AEIecon scholars assess the influence of cash flow on investment when controlling for error in Tobin’s Q.

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  • .@AEIecon’s Hassett and Oliner respond to “Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity: Fact or Fiction?" by Agca & Mozumdar

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In Cummins, Hassett, and Oliner (2006), we assessed the influence of cash flow on investment when controlling explicitly for measurement error in Tobin's Q. We showed that the cash-flow effects often found in other studies disappeared after controlling for this measurement error. We also showed that a measure of Q based on analyst forecasts of firm-level earnings does a better job of capturing the fundamentals that drive investment spending than does the usual measure of Q based on stock prices.

Agca and Mozumdar (2012), henceforth AM, assert that errors in our data and econometric methodology are responsible for both of our key findings. AM identify three alleged problems with our work: (a) that we may have misdated the cash-flow series in our dataset, (b) that the set of instruments we use is too restrictive, and (c) that our analyst-based measure of Q is flawed.

As discussed below, we do not find AM's critique to be compelling. First, AM provide no convincing evidence to support the claim that our cash-flow series was misdated. Second, even when AM modify our data to correct this alleged problem, use their preferred instruments, and substitute a different analyst-based measure of Q, their results do not overturn the central findings in our paper. We cannot emphasize this point strongly enough: When AM use our dataset, modified as they see fit, they do not reverse our results. Only when they construct their own dataset do their results differ substantially from those in our paper. Those results may be of interest in their own right, but they do not constitute a rebuttal of our findings.

 

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About the Author

 

Kevin A.
Hassett
  • Before joining AEI, Mr. Hassett was a senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor of economics and finance at the Graduate School of Business of Columbia University, as well as a policy consultant to the Treasury Department during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations. He served as an economic adviser to the George W. Bush 2004 presidential campaign, chief economic adviser to Senator John McCain during the 2000 presidential primaries, senior economic adviser to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign, and economic adviser to the Mitt Romney 2012 presidential campaign.   Mr. Hassett is a columnist for National Review.

  • Phone: 202-862-7157
    Email: khassett@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emma Bennett
    Phone: 202-862-5862
    Email: emma.bennett@aei.org

 

Stephen D.
Oliner
  • An economist who joined AEI after a career at the Federal Reserve Board that spanned more than 25 years, Stephen Oliner held a number of high-level positions at the Fed, most recently serving as a senior adviser in the Division of Research and Statistics. He was actively involved in the Fed's analysis of the U.S. economy and financial markets, and his research spanned a wide range of topics, including monetary policy, business capital spending, productivity growth, commercial real estate and the measurement of capital. Concurrent to his position at AEI, Mr. Oliner is a senior fellow at the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate. He also maintains an economic consulting practice. 

  • Phone: 202.419.5205
    Email: stephen.oliner@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emily Rapp
    Phone: 202.419.5212
    Email: emily.rapp@aei.org

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