Time-to-plan lags for commercial construction projects
Stephen D. Oliner, Jonathan N. Millar, Daniel E. Sichel | AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series
December 20, 2012

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Abstract: Time-to-Plan Lags for Commercial Construction Projects

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We use a large project-level dataset to estimate the length of the planning period for commercial construction projects in the United States. We find that these time-to-plan lags are long, averaging about 17 months when we aggregate the projects without regard to size and more than 28 months when we weight the projects by their construction cost. The full distribution of time-to-plan lags is very wide, and we relate this variation to the characteristics of the project and its location. In addition, we show that time-to-plan lags lengthened by 3 to 4 months, on average, over our sample period (1999 to 2010). Regulatory factors are associated with variations in planning lags across locations, and we present anecdotal evidence that links at least some of the lengthening over time to heightened regulatory scrutiny. 

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About the Author

 

Stephen D.
Oliner

  • An economist who joined AEI after a career at the Federal Reserve Board that spanned more than 25 years, Stephen Oliner held a number of high-level positions at the Fed, most recently serving as a senior adviser in the Division of Research and Statistics. He was actively involved in the Fed's analysis of the U.S. economy and financial markets, and his research spanned a wide range of topics, including monetary policy, business capital spending, productivity growth, commercial real estate and the measurement of capital. Concurrent to his position at AEI, Mr. Oliner is a senior fellow at the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate. He also maintains an economic consulting practice. 

  • Phone: 202.419.5205
    Email: stephen.oliner@aei.org

  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emily Rapp
    Phone: 202.419.5212
    Email: emily.rapp@aei.org
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