US Strategy Could Force Friends to Hedge Against America

The Biden administration has demonstrated two things this year in Asia: (1) it can deliver remarkable progress on defence cooperation with key allies and partners, and (2) it cannot — or will not — present a similarly appealing trade agenda to the region. This policy position is not new. In fact, it is very much in line with over a decade of American engagement in which defence progress has outpaced economic initiatives. Combined with a growing sentiment of restraint and isolationism (including among potential future presidents), US allies are increasingly having to question their reliance on America to provide regional security and prosperity.

The result, I fear, is that the United States will find even its closest allies asking more from Washington than it can consistently deliver. Those allies, as well as other partners, will look to each other (and sometimes to China) to make up for what US leaders are unable or unwilling to provide. In short, Washington is forcing its friends to hedge against American protectionism today and potential isolationism tomorrow.

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